Mexican Peso: Domestic data, geopolitical risks to drive valuation

The Mexican Peso could be impacted by Mexican Retail Sales data for June – which will be released at 12:00 GMT on Tuesday – with analysts forecasting a 1.8% decline on a year-over-year basis. Whilst not usually a market moving release, a stronger-than-expected figure might support the Peso by lending credence to the view that the Banco de Mexico (Banxico) will take a more gradual approach to lowering interest rates than is currently expected. The expectation that interest rates might remain elevated for longer would be positive for the Peso as high interest rates attract greater foreign capital inflows. 

Headline inflation in Mexico remains elevated at 5.57% and this could be further supported by stubbornly high dwelling inflation, according to research by Capital Economics, who expect the Banco de Mexico (Banxico) to take a gradual approach to cutting interest rates .