Current trend

The American dollar is showing near-zero dynamics, consolidating near 0.8540. Market activity remains restrained, as investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication at 20:00 (GMT 2), of the minutes of the July meeting of the US Fed on monetary policy, as well as the speech of the head of the department Jerome Powell at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole.

Markets are hoping to receive new signals in favor of launching a program to reduce interest rates already at the September meeting, expecting that officials will decide to adjust the indicator immediately by –50 basis points. Now, the probability of such a scenario is estimated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FeedWatch Tool at only 24.0%. In total, two or three reductions in borrowing costs are predicted by the end of 2024, which could put significant pressure on the American currency.

On Thursday at 15:45 (GMT 2), market participants will pay attention to business activity statistics, based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises, while their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is assessed. The services PMI may fall from 55.0 points to 54.0 points, and the manufacturing PMI may consolidate at 49.6 points. At 14:30 (GMT 2), a report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be presented, where an increase in initial jobless claims for the week of August 16 from 227.0K to 230.0K is expected.

Meanwhile, the statistics on foreign trade in Switzerland published yesterday failed to have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. However, export volumes fell from 24.29B francs to 24.12B francs, while imports adjusted from 18.11B francs to 19.23B francs, which led to a decrease in the balance surplus from 6.12B francs to 4.89B francs.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands try to reverse into the horizontal plane: the price range is expanding from below, letting the “bears” renew local lows. MACD is declining, maintaining a relatively strong sell signal, being below the signal line. Stochastic shows a more confident downward trend but is close to the lows, indicating that the American dollar may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.8559, 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8673.

Support levels: 0.8500, 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8350.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a confident breakout of the 0.8559 level upwards, with the target at 0.8673. Stop loss – 0.8500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 0.8500, with the target at 0.8400. Stop loss – 0.8559.