Current trend

The XAU/USD pair the quotes returned to the level of 2500.0. This week, the metal is again supported by fundamental factors and, in particular, the likely change in the course of the US monetary policy in September, which may also be reflected in the minutes of the July meeting of the US Fed due today at 20:00 (GMT 2).

The document may contain signals to the market about the pace and magnitude of the interest rate cut. Some analysts still assume that the financial authorities may decide to adjust by –50 basis points, and will conduct two more cuts before the end of the year. In her recent speech, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris proposed controlling food prices, citing the difference between the floating cost of goods in a market economy and inflated prices. If the plans are implemented and there is no deficit, the US Fed may move to a faster pace of reducing borrowing. In particular, if the indicator is consistently reduced by 25 basis points, this could bring the rate to 4.50%, which will become a catalyst for strong sell-offs in the debt market, supporting commodity assets such as gold.

At present, perhaps the main reason for the local increase in precious metals is the correction in the bond market. Since the beginning of August, the 10-year securities yield has fallen from 4.287% to 3.815%, which has provoked most investors to abandon investments in favor of riskier assets. Traders’ interest in gold is confirmed by statistics from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Buy positions backed by real money increased by 29.182K over the week, and now, the buyers’ position of 232.909K contracts far exceeds the sellers’ position of 13.237K.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is holding above the resistance line of the ascending channel 2510.0–2300.0.

Technical indicators strengthen a buy signal. Fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new ascending bars, consolidation above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 2533.0, 2668.0.

Support levels: 2485.0, 2378.0.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price consolidates above the resistance level of 2533.0, with the target at 2668.0. Stop loss – 2480.0. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price consolidates below the support level of 2485.0, with the target at 2378.0. Stop loss – 2520.0.