Current trend

During the Asian session, XAG/USD the quotes are consolidating at 29.50, holding at the ​​highs of July 18, renewed last Tuesday: market activity wait for new drivers.

Thus, at the end of the week, investors will focus on the speeches of representatives of global central banks at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole. They hope to receive signals from the head of the American department about the volume of interest rate adjustments at the September meeting. At the moment, options for reducing the cost of borrowing by 25 basis points or 50 basis points are being considered. Markets expect two or three revisions of the parameters before the end of the calendar year. Some representatives of the department are cautious about any changes in monetary policy due to the continuing risks of accelerating inflation. Thus, earlier, member of the US Fed Board of Governors Michelle Bowman warned that a premature reaction to the correction of individual economic indicators could negatively affect the successes achieved in the fight against high consumer prices.

Today at 15:45 (GMT 2), the US business activity is due. The manufacturing PMI may fall from 49.6 points to 49.5 points and the services PMI from 55.0 points to 54.0 points. The initial jobless claims for the week of August 16 may increase from 227.0K to 230.0K.

Meanwhile, the correction continues in the silver contracts market. Thus, according to the latest report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, the number of net speculative positions decreased to 45.3K from 49.1K previously. As for the dynamics, the “bulls” retain the advantage against the continuing outflow of investors from the asset. According to the report on positions secured by real money, their balance consolidates around 36.693K against 12.436K for “bears”. Last week, buyers closed 0.246K contracts, while sellers increased them by 0.400K, which confirms the low trading activity. Some pressure on the quotes of the instrument is also exerted by hopes for a gradual settlement of the military conflict in the Middle East. The markets still expect a possible strike on Israeli territory by the Iranian authorities in response to the death of the head of the political bureau of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh. However, the most negative scenarios have not been realized so far, and the nature of future forecasts is gradually changing in an optimistic direction.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands show moderate growth: the price range is expanding, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. MACD maintains a strong buy signal, located above the signal line and trying to consolidate above the zero mark. Stochastic, on the contrary, showed a rebound from the high values ​​and signals a downward trend in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 29.73, 30.00, 30.50, 30.75.

Support levels: 29.35, 29.00, 28.68, 28.30.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a confident breakdown of 29.35, with the target at 28.68. Stop loss – 29.73. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Long positions may be opened from level 29.35 with a breakout of 29.73, with the target at 30.50. Stop loss – 29.35.