EUR/USD

The European currency is showing ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session on August 22, consolidating near 1.1145 and located near the record highs since July 2023, renewed yesterday. Markets are awaiting speeches by representatives of global central banks at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, as before, hoping to receive clear signals in favor of interest rate cuts during the September meeting and later this year. It is worth noting that some analysts are counting on an adjustment of the indicator by –50 basis points at once while calling on the US Fed to take active actions between meetings to finally dispel fears about a possible slowdown in the US economy. Today, traders focus on business activity statistics. The manufacturing PMI may fall from 45.8 points to 45.6 points at the end of August, while the same indicator in the services sector rose from 51.9 to 53.3 points. In turn, similar indicators for Germany adjusted from 43.2 points to 42.1 points and from 52.5 points to 51.4 points, respectively.

GBP/USD

The pound is correcting after a confident “bullish” rally began on August 7, leading to a renewal of record July highs since mid–2023. Now, the instrument is testing 1.3080 for a breakdown. The markets are awaiting the start of the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, where the heads of the US Fed and the Bank of England will speak, clarifying the prospects for monetary policy. However, the question of a possible rate cut by the American regulator during the September meeting seems to have already been decided. Investors are only debating the possible adjustment – whether it will be a standard quarter percentage point reduction or a half point at once. Today, British investors will pay attention to the August business activity data. Forecasts suggest a moderate increase in the service PMI from 52.5 points to 52.8 points, while the manufacturing PMI may stay at 52.1 points. The US manufacturing PMI may fall from 49.6 points to 49.5 points, and the services PMI from 55.0 points to 54.0 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is showing an uncertain decline in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, retreating from the local highs of July 16, renewed yesterday, and testing the 0.6730 mark for a breakout downwards, while there are not enough drivers for the development of a full-fledged downtrend. Market participants are partially consolidating profits on long positions ahead of the opening of the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, where they hope to hear signals from the speech of the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the timing and volume of reduction in borrowing costs. At the moment, experts assume a cut in the interest rate during the September meeting, as well as one or two more revisions of the value by –25 basis points before the end of the calendar year. It will allow for a soft landing of the economy, in which inflation slows without sharp unemployment and pressure on the labor market. Some analysts are confident that the adjustment step may reach –50 basis points. However, its probability does not exceed 25.0%. Meanwhile, moderate support for the Australian dollar is provided by August business activity. The manufacturing PMI changed from 47.5 points to 48.7 points, and the services PMI from 50.4 points to 52.2 points, ahead of the average forecasts. The composite PMI rose from 49.9 points to 51.4 points. Today at 15:45 (GMT 2), traders will focus on the US statistics. Manufacturing PMI may fall from 49.6 points to 49.5 points, and the services PMI from 55.0 points to 54.0 points. Investors assess the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes, where officials emphasized that a rate cut in the short term is unlikely, and the value must remain high for a long period to ensure the fight against inflation.

USD/JPY

The American dollar is showing ambiguous dynamics in the USD/JPY pair, holding around 145.15. The “bearish” momentum formed at the end of last week is gradually leveling out, as investors prefer to wait for the results of the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole. As a reminder, the event will include, among other things, a speech by US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is likely to comment on forecasts for a possible reduction in interest rates, starting with the September meeting. In particular, investors are still trying to analyze whether the regulator will decide to reduce e of the indicator in September by 50 basis points at once or will act gradually. Today at 15:45 (GMT 2), US business activity data is due. The manufacturing PMI may fall from 49.6 points to 49.5 points, and the services PMI from 55.0 points to 54.0 points. Initial jobless claims for the week of August 16 may increase from 227.0K to 230.0K. In Japan, data on business activity were published during the morning session. The manufacturing PMI grew from 49.1 points to 49.5 points, worse than the average forecast of 49.8 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing a moderate decline in the Asian session, retreating from the rapid upward momentum of the last two weeks, which became the catalyst for reaching record highs around 2530.00. Thus, investors will focus on the speeches of representatives of the world’s central banks at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole at the end of the week. They hope to receive signals from the head of the US Department on the size of the interest rate adjustment at the September meeting. Options for cutting borrowing costs by 25 basis points or 50 basis points are currently under consideration. Markets expect two or three revisions of the parameters before the end of the calendar year. However, some officials of the department are cautious about any changes in monetary policy due to the lingering risks of accelerating inflation. Some pressure on metal prices is also exerted by hopes for a gradual settlement of the military conflict in the Middle East. Markets still expect a possible strike on Israeli territory by the Iranian authorities in response to the death of the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh. However, the most negative scenarios have not been realized, and the nature of future forecasts is gradually changing in an optimistic direction.