Current trend

The USD/CHF pair is showing ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session, testing 0.8470 for a breakdown and renewing the lows of August 5. Market activity remains low, while investors are assessing the results of the speech by the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole at the end of last week.

The official noted that the time has come to cut interest rates, and it is important to prevent excessive cooling of the labor market. He expressed confidence that it is only a matter of time before inflation reaches the target level of 2.0%. However, the markets did not receive an answer if the cost of borrowing would be adjusted immediately by –50 basis points during the September meeting or would change to the standard –25 basis points.

On Monday at 14:30 (GMT 2), investors will focus on the US durable goods orders data. According to forecasts, the indicator will correct by 4.0% in July after –6.7% last month, while the value excluding transport will likely remain unchanged from the 0.4% increase previously.

Today, the Swiss Q2 employment data was published. The indicator increased from 5.481M to 5.499M.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are declining: the price range widens, letting the “bears” renew the lows. The MACD indicator maintains a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, located near the lows, reflects that the American dollar is oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.8500, 0.8559, 0.8600, 0.8630.

Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365, 0.8331.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakout of the 0.8450 level downwards, with the target at 0.8365. Stop loss — 0.8500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Long positions may be opened after a rebound from the 0.8450 level and a breakout of the 0.8500 level upwards, with the target at 0.8600. Stop loss — 0.8450.