Current trend

The NZD/USD pair renewed the June high, holding at 0.6207, the upward dynamics may be temporary, as analysts expect the monetary authorities to switch to a “dovish” monetary policy cycle.

At the last meeting, the New Zealand regulator cut the interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time since March 2020, highlighting the positive trend of slowing inflation in the range of 1.0–3.0%. According to officials’ forecasts, the figure will be 3.85% by the end of 2025 from the current 5.25%. Against this background, officials of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may reduce the cost of borrowing by 25 basis points at the October meeting. The growth of the instrument on Friday was practically not hindered by poor macroeconomic statistics. Q2 retail sales volumes decreased by 1.2% QoQ after growing by 0.4% earlier, although analysts expected a decrease of 1.0%, and the indicator excluding the automobile market for the same period – from 0.3% to –1.0%.

Today, investors will focus on statistics from the US on the dynamics of orders for durable goods. According to preliminary estimates, the July value will be adjusted from –6.7% to 4.0%, and excluding transport – from 0.4% to 0.0%.

The long-term trend reversed upwards last week after breaking through the resistance level of 0.6205 and renewing the June high. The next target is 0.6266, after consolidation above which the December high of 0.6350 may be reached. In the case of correction, strong support levels will be 0.6185 and 0.6080, where long positions, with the target at 0.6266 are relevant. The RSI (21) indicator is approaching the overbought area, and after reaching it, short positions on the correction are relevant.

The medium-term trend is upward. Last week, the quotes broke zone 2 (0.6143–0.6129) and headed towards zone 3 (0.6283–0.6269). At the moment, the trading instrument is slightly correcting downwards, and the trend support area of ​​0.6096–0.6082 will likely be reached, after which long positions, with the target at the high of last week 0.6235 are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6266, 0.6350.

Support levels: 0.6185, 0.6080, 0.5980.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.6185, with the target at 0.6266 and stop loss 0.6155. Implementation period: 7–9 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.6155, with the target at 0.6080 and stop loss 0.6185.