Current trend

The AUD/USD pair is showing quite active growth, recovering from the corrective decline the day before. Despite three weeks of growth, the instrument faced strong resistance at 0.6800. It is worth noting that the current monthly rebound was largely driven by the consistent weakening of the US dollar and the recovery of risk assets. The rise in AUD/USD quotes on Monday was technical in nature, while pressure on the US currency remains amid significantly increased expectations of a cut in the US Federal Reserve interest rate during the September meeting. At the end of last week, the Chairman of the American regulator, Jerome Powell, speaking at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, officially confirmed the regulator’s intentions to ease monetary policy, and also expressed confidence in the weakening of persistent inflation risks. However, the official did not specify the volume of the proposed reduction in borrowing costs.

At the end of the week, the US is expected to publish statistics on price indices for personal consumption expenditures, which may make additional adjustments to forecasts, since the US Federal Reserve relies on it when calculating the average inflation dynamics in the country. At the same time, preliminary estimates do not suggest significant fluctuations: the Core PCE in annual terms may rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, while in monthly terms the indicator may remain at the previous level of 0.2%.

On Wednesday at 03:30 (GMT 2), the market will receive July data on the Consumer Price Index: inflation is expected to fall from 3.8% to 3.4%, which, however, remains significantly above the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) target levels. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated her willingness to raise interest rates if needed to manage consumer price dynamics, maintaining a "hawkish" tone as the core rate accelerated from 3.9% in the last quarter and is expected to adjust to a target range of 2.0% to 3.0% by the end of 2025.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, which remained in a "bearish" direction last week, is reversing upwards again, signaling the same risks of overbought Australian dollar in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6900.

Support levels: 0.6775, 0.6750, 0.6725, 0.6700.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 0.6800 with the target of 0.6850. Stop-loss — 0.6775. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 0.6800 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.6775 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 0.6725. Stop-loss — 0.6800.