Current trend

Amid poor dynamics of the American dollar and unstable statistics from New Zealand, the NZD/USD pair is correcting near 0.6218 during the Asian session.

Thus, in June, total retail sales fell by 1.2%, continuing the downward trend of the last eight quarters, the fastest pace was noted in the sectors of electronic goods (–6.0%), clothing and footwear (–4.1%), cars and spare parts (–2.7%), and catering services (–1.9%), while supermarkets (3.4%) and the pharmaceutical industry (2.4%) strengthened. Poor dynamics of indicators do not allow the national economy to move towards recovery.

The American currency is holding at 100.70 in USDX. After the comments of the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole in favor of an imminent interest rate cut, traders are pricing in a potential adjustment of the indicator by 50 basis points. At the same time, the official expressed confidence in a sustainable weakening of inflation risks but noted some concerns about the pace of cooling of the labor market, which increased traders’ interest in statistics on employment and unemployment. Meanwhile, macroeconomic data show an active recovery. The July durable goods orders increased from –6.9% to 9.9%, which is not associated with an increase in sales in the defense industry since the net volume excluding this sector changed from –7.5% to 10.4%.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is correcting, trying to consolidate above the resistance line of the sideways channel 0.6210–0.5870. Technical indicators have given a buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, staying at a significant distance from it, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.6240, 0.6350.

Support levels: 0.6180, 0.6070.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6240, with the target at 0.6350. Stop loss is 0.6190. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 0.6180, with the target at 0.6070. Stop loss is 0.6230.