Current trend

During the Asian session, the XAU/USD pair retreated from the highs of August 20, preparing to test the support level of 2500.00 against technical factors. The asset is supported by expectations of an imminent reduction in interest rates by the US Fed, after which officials from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, and others may announce an easing of monetary policy.

Investors assess the US macroeconomic statistics. At the beginning of the week, the dollar was supported by durable goods orders. The July volume increased from –6.9% to 9.9% against the forecast of 4.0%. The S&P/CaseShiller home price index fell from 0.0% to –0.1% MoM, while analysts expected 0.2%, and slowed from 6.9% to 6.5% YoY, better than the estimate of 6.0%. In addition, the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank’s August manufacturing PMI adjusted from –17.0 points to –19.0 points, failing to meet expectations of –14.0 points. On Friday, the regulator’s key personal consumption expenditure price index is due. According to preliminary estimates, the July core indicator will change from 2.6% to 2.7%, while the broader indicator will change from 2.5% to 2.6%.

The market is showing upward momentum: according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions in gold reached 291.3K last week, up from 267.3K. As for the dynamics, the total number of transactions approached 300.0K for the first time since the beginning of 2020, and the balance of “bulls” in positions secured by real money amounted to 251.519K against 14.770K for “bears”. Last week, buyers increased the number of transactions by 18.610K, while sellers increased the figure by 1.532K, which reflects investor confidence in the positive dynamics.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator is declining after the formation of a sell signal (the histogram tends to settle below the signal line). Stochastic approached the level of “80” and reversed into a horizontal plane, reacting to the emergence of the “bearish” dynamics during the morning session.

Resistance levels: 2510.00, 2525.00, 2540.00, 2555.00.

Support levels: 2494.93, 2483.64, 2470.00, 2450.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 2494.93, with the target at 2470.00. Stop loss — 2510.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Long positions may be opened after a rebound from 2494.93 and a breakout of 2510.00, with the target at 2540.00. Stop loss – 2494.93.