Current trend

This week, the SOL/USD pair lost the positions gained after the speech of the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where he announced the likelihood of an imminent easing of monetary policy, confirming investors’ hopes for a September reduction in interest rates by 25–50 basis points. The cryptocurrency responded to the official’s rhetoric by testing three-week highs around 162.30 but was unable to stay there due to negative fundamental factors.

Firstly, the possibility of a reduction in borrowing costs by the US Fed was already taken into account by the market, so the upward dynamics of alternative assets after Powell’s statements were short-term. In addition, the American economy is actively recovering, despite the slowdown in inflation, which still maintains the investment attractiveness of the dollar.

Secondly, crypto community members are disappointed with the uncertainty surrounding the launch of Solana-ETF. In mid-August, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) removed Form 19b–4s (a document on the placement of new instruments on trading platforms) from its website. These actions raised suspicions that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected the possibility of launching a new instrument in advance since it continues to consider the token as a security, and not a commodity. It should be noted that Bloomberg analysts are confident that approval of the fund’s work by the authorities will only be possible if the presidential administration in the United States changes.

It is also worth considering that additional pressure has already been exerted on the entire cryptocurrency market by the new aggravation of the situation in the Middle East: mutual attacks by Israel and the Lebanese paramilitary organization Hezbollah have cast doubt on the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the conflict and contributed to the rejection of risky assets.

Support and resistance

The SOL/USD pair reversed at 162.50 (Murrey level [5/8]) and is trying to consolidate below the middle line of Bollinger bands, after which a decline to the area of ​​132.00 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 125.00 (Murrey level [2/8]) is expected. After a breakout of 162.50, the movement to the targets of 175.00 (Murrey level [6/8]) and 187.50 (Murrey level [7/8]) may resume.

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is trying to reverse downwards from the overbought zone, and Stochastic is at the zero line, maintaining insignificant volumes.

Resistance levels: 162.50, 175.00, 187.50.

Support levels: 132.00, 125.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 144.00, with the targets at 132.00, 125.00, and stop loss 153.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 162.50, with the targets at 175.00, 187.50, and stop loss 152.40.