United States of America

USD is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, and GBP.

Investors are focused on the publication of data on gross domestic product (GDP), as well as personal consumption expenditure: in the second quarter, the American economy strengthened by 3.0%, significantly exceeding both the forecast of 2.8% and the previous figure of 1.4%, while the core index of prices for personal consumption over the same period fell from 3.7% to 2.8% with preliminary estimates of 2.9%. These statistics, combined with the weakening of inflationary pressure, meet the conditions of the US Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth noting the comments of the head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) Raphael Bostic, who said yesterday that the time has come to change course, but serious steps must be taken after analyzing the employment and inflation reports, which are to be published before the regulator's meeting on September 17–18. Also today, weekly data on the labor market became known: the number of initial jobless claims increased by 231.0 thousand, which was lower than both the forecast of 232.0 thousand and the previous figure of 233.0 thousand, while the total number of citizens receiving assistance from the state increased from 1.855 million to 1.868 million.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening in pairs with USD and GBP but strengthening against JPY.

Investors are focused on the publication of preliminary data on the German consumer price index (CPI) for August: the indicator fell from 0.3% to ˗0.1% MoM and from 2.3% to 1.9% YoY with expectations of 2.1%, while the harmonized index in monthly terms fell from 0.5% to ˗0.2%, and in annual terms – from 2.6% to 2.0%, also more seriously than expected (2.3%), confirming the likelihood of a September interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). Also published today were the August data on business and consumer confidence in the Eurozone, which turned out to be positive: the indicator rose from 96.0 points to 96.6 points, while a decline to 95.8 points was expected. These statistics confirm the gradual recovery of the European economy, which will be further supported by the easing of monetary policy.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening in pairs with the euro and the yen but weakening against USD.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the pound's movement is due to external factors. It is worth noting the publication of July data on the automotive sector, which turned out to be weak: the number of registered cars in the country fell sharply by 17.7%, and production volume declined for the fifth month in a row, this time by another 14.4% to 65.5 thousand units. However, experts from the British Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) note that the dynamics slowed down due to model changes and temporary restrictions in the supply chain, so the prospects for the resumption of growth in the industry remain. It is expected that next year the annual production volume will exceed 1.0 million cars.

Japan

JPY is weakening against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and USD.

The government today released its monthly economic report for August, in which it raised its assessment of the national economy for the first time in more than a year, indicating that it is recovering at a moderate pace, although some sectors are still slowing. Officials also noted that consumption in the country is growing thanks to higher household incomes and a temporary cut in income taxes. On Friday, investors are expecting the publication of data on inflation in the Tokyo metropolitan area: YoY, the consumer price index may rise from 2.2% to 2.4%, while the core indicator will remain at 2.2%. The implementation of these forecasts will increase the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and could cause the yen to strengthen against its main competitors.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, and GBP.

On Friday, investors are awaiting the publication of July retail sales data: according to forecasts, their volume will decrease from 0.5% to 0.4%, confirming the increasing risks of the Australian economy moving into a contraction, however, on the other hand, these statistics may give officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reasons to avoid further tightening of monetary policy and encourage them to discuss the possibility of cutting interest rates this year.

Oil

Oil prices are rising again today amid the ongoing shutdown of production at Libyan fields and a decrease in oil product inventories in the United States.

As a result of the internal political conflict in Libya, production, according to Reuters estimates, has already fallen by 700.0 thousand barrels per day with a total pre-crisis volume of 1.18 million barrels per day. Experts note that the continued negative dynamics of Libyan oil production may affect OPEC's plans to increase production in October. The report on oil product inventories published yesterday by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) recorded a decrease in oil volumes by 0.846 million barrels, which was less than the projected 2.700 million barrels, while gasoline reserves decreased by 2.203 million barrels, and reserves grew by 0.275 million barrels.