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EUR/USD EDGES HIGHER TO NEAR 1.1050 FOLLOWING A DOVISH SENTIMENT SURROUNDING THE FED

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  • EUR/USD gains ground as the Fed is expected to deliver at least a 25-basis point rate cut in September.
  • The US Dollar received support from July's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data released on Friday.
  • ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau favors the central bank considering a rate cut in September.

EUR/USD breaks its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.1050 during the Asian session on Monday. The upside of the EUR/USD pair could be attributed to the tepid US Dollar (USD) following the dovish sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the US July's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index might have provided support for the Greenback and limited the upside of the pair.

On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.5% year-over-year in July, matching the previous reading of 2.5% but falling short of the estimated 2.6%. Meanwhile, the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6% year-over-year in July, consistent with the prior figure of 2.6% but slightly below the consensus forecast of 2.7%.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting. Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, a prominent hawk on the FOMC, indicated last week that it might be "time to move" on rate cuts due to further cooling inflation and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which gauges the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated Kashkari’s words as neutral with a score of 5.6.



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