Daily digest market movers: Catching up after the holiday
- At 13:45 GMT, S&P Global will release its final Manufacturing number from the Purchasing Managers Index for August. The preliminary reading stood at 48 and it isn’t expected to be revised.
- At 14:00 GMT, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing numbers for August:
- The headline PMI is expected to head to 47.5 from 46.8.
- The Prices Paid component should head to 52.5 from 52.9.
- The New Orders index stood at 47.4 in July, and the Employment Index was at 43.4.
- Apart from the ISM, the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) will release its economic Optimism survey for September. The previous reading was at 44.5 with 46.2 expected.
- Equities are struggling across the board, with minor losses for all European indices and US futures on the back foot as well.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 69.0% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September against a 31.0% chance for a 50 bps cut. Another 25 bps cut (if September is a 25 bps cut) is expected in November by 49.9%, while there is a 41.5% chance that rates will be 75 bps (25 bps 50 bps) below the current levels and an 8.6% probability of rates being 100 (25 bps 75 bps) basis points lower.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 3.90%, slightly down on the day after opening at 3.93%.
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