United States of America

USD is weakening in pairs with EUR and GBP but has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.

Today, weekly data on the labor market was published: the number of initial jobless claims increased by 227.0 thousand, which was lower than both the forecast of 231.0 thousand and the previous figure of 232.0 thousand, while the total number of citizens receiving assistance from the state decreased from 1.860 million to 1.838 million. In this regard, it is worth paying attention to the comments of the head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) Mary Daly, who said that the regulator needs to start lowering borrowing costs to maintain sustainable employment growth and prevent a significant acceleration of inflation. Also worth noting is the publication of the results of a Reuters poll of leading economists on the US Federal Reserve's future actions: most respondents believe that officials will cut interest rates in September and December, while further easing of monetary policy in 2025 will be insignificant.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening in pairs with JPY and USD but has ambiguous dynamics against GBP.

Today, July data on retail sales in the Eurozone were published, which turned out to be weak: MoM, the indicator adjusted by 0.1% after falling by 0.4% a month earlier, and YoY – by -0.1% instead of the expected 0.1%, confirming weak demand from households against the backdrop of high inflation and the tight monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Also today, investors paid attention to the July statistics on the volume of factory orders in Germany: they grew by 2.9% against preliminary estimates of ˗1.6%. The market also remains focused on the results of a survey of leading economists conducted by Reuters. Most experts believe that by the end of the year the European regulator will adjust the cost of borrowing twice more by 25 basis points, in September and December.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening in pairs with JPY and USD but has ambiguous dynamics against EUR.

August data on the Construction PMI was published today: the indicator fell from 55.3 points to 53.6 points against the forecast of 54.6 points but remained in positive zone. Thus, growth in the UK construction industry slowed, despite the fastest recovery in housing construction in almost two years, as positive sentiment was offset by uncertainty in the construction of infrastructure facilities. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will announce the draft of the new budget soon, but the amount of investment that the government will allocate to the renewal of domestic infrastructure is not yet known.

Japan

JPY is weakening against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and USD.

Today, July data on inflation adjusted wages were published: according to the calculations of the Ministry of Labor, the indicator rose by 0.4% after 1.1% in June for the second month in a row, which is due to indexation considering summer bonuses. The positive dynamics of the indicator is one of the key conditions for the Bank of Japan to continue tightening its monetary policy. Currently, most experts expect that officials will again raise the cost of borrowing at least once more before the end of the year.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against USD but has ambiguous dynamics in pairs with EUR, JPY, and GBP.

July trade data was released today and was positive, with exports up 0.7% after 1.4% in June, and imports down by 0.8% after a 0.4% gain the previous month, pushing the trade balance up to 6.009 billion Australian dollars. Also worth noting were comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, who today reiterated her earlier position that it is premature to consider cutting interest rates in the short term as inflation remains too high. The official stressed that domestic price pressures, particularly in housing and services, prevent inflation from returning to the target range earlier than at the end of 2025.

Oil

Oil prices are making moderate attempts to grow today amid the publication of the American Petroleum Institute (API) oil reserve report, which recorded a reduction of 7.400 million barrels instead of the predicted ˗0.900 million barrels.

Also positive for the market are reports of a probable postponement by OPEC of the scheduled increase in oil production by 180.0 thousand barrels per day in October due to concerns about a global decline in demand for energy. Today, investors are also expecting the publication of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reserve report: they may decrease by 0.600 million barrels. If this forecast comes true, quotes will receive additional support.