Current trend

The AUD/USD pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating near 0.6735 ahead of the August US labor market report, the results of which could adjust the US Federal Reserve's plans for an expected reduction in borrowing costs in September.

The main scenario, as before, assumes an interest rate adjustment of –25 basis points, but macroeconomic statistics that entered the market this week have significantly increased the likelihood of a reduction of the indicator by 50 basis points at once. In particular, the report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on the level of employment in the private sector reflected a correction from 111.0 thousand to 99.0 thousand against the forecast of 145.0 thousand, which was the smallest increase since January 2021.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Australia provide moderate support to the instrument: the day before, investors paid attention to the acceleration of the trade surplus in July from 5.43 billion Australian dollars to 6.01 billion Australian dollars with preliminary estimates of 5.15 billion Australian dollars, which is due to a sharp drop in Imports by 0.8% after an increase of 0.4% in the previous month, while Exports adjusted from 1.4% to 0.7%.

Market participants also took note of the rather "hawkish" rhetoric of the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Michele Bullock, who said that borrowing costs would be kept at current levels for some time, since it was premature to consider the possibility of reducing them in the short term due to the continuing risks of inflation. The official stressed that domestic price pressures, especially in the real estate and services sectors, prevent the indicator from returning to the target range of 2.0-3.0% before the end of 2025. Today, the instrument is supported by the acceleration of the dynamics of Home Loans in July by 2.9% after 0.5% with a forecast of 1.0%.

Support and resistance

In the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost unchanged, but it remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from the level of "20", is developing a restrained upward correction, signaling in favor of the development of a full-fledged upward trend in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6775, 0.6800, 0.6825.

Support levels: 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6675, 0.6646.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 0.6700 with the target at 0.6646. Stop-loss — 0.6725. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

The return of the "bullish" trend with the breakout of 0.6750 may become a signal for new purchases with the target of 0.6800. Stop-loss — 0.6725.