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Daily digest market movers: All eyes on payrolls

Wulan Viana
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  • At 12:30 GMT, the US Jobs Report for August will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Here are the main key takeaways to watch:
    • Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to have increased by 160,000, accelerating from the tepid 114,000 seen a month earlier.
    • Monthly Average Hourly Earnings should tick up to 0.3% from 0.2%.
    • The Unemployment Rate should dip to 4.2% from 4.3%.
  • Two Fed speakers are on the docket after the US Jobs Report is published:
    • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers keynote remarks and participates in a Q&A session at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics around 12:45 GMT. 
    • Around 15:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivers a speech about the US economic outlook and participates in a Q&A session at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.
  • Equities are trading lower again, with Asia already closing off this week’s performance in red. Both European and US equities are also losing ground, although by less than 1%. 
  • The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 59.0% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September against a 41.0% chance for a 50 bps cut.  Another 25 bps cut (if September is a 25 bps cut) is expected in November by 29.9%, while there is a 49.9% chance that rates will be 75 bps (25 bps 50 bps) below the current levels and a 20.2% probability of rates being 100 (25 bps 75 bps) basis points lower. 
  • The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 3.70%, close to the lowest level for this year at 3.66%.

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