Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from bets for a larger interest rate cut by the Fed in September
- The ADP National Employment Report published on Thursday showed that US private-sector employment rose 99,000 in August, marking the smallest gain since January 2021.
- The reading was well below the market expectation of 145,000 and was accompanied by a downward revision of the previous month's print to 111,000 from 122,000 estimated originally.
- This comes on top of a report on Wednesday showing that job openings fell to 7.673 million, or a three-and-a-half-year low in July and provided further evidence of a deteriorating labor market.
- The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services PMI inched up from 51.4 to 51.5 in August, while the Prices Paid Index rose to 57.3 from 57 and the Employment Index declined to 50.2 from 51.1.
- Separately, the US Department of Labor (DoL) reported that Initial Jobless Claims declined more than anticipated, to 227K in the week ending August 31 from the previous weekly figure of 232K.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the US central bank must calibrate policy to the evolving economy and cut policy rates because inflation is falling and the economy is slowing.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that the longer-run trend of the labor market and inflation data justify easing interest-rate policy soon and then steadily over the next year.
- According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in a 40% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by 50 basis points at the September 17-18 monetary policy meeting.
- Dovish expectations, meanwhile, keep the US Treasury bond yields depressed and the US Dollar bulls on the defensive, which, in turn, should act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold price.
- The market focus now shifts to the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show that the economy added 160K jobs in August and the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.2%.
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