Current trend

The BTC/USD pair is holding within a long-term downward channel around 54778.00, losing ground amid an outflow of investment from risky assets.

Market participants are abandoning cryptocurrencies in favor of defensive instruments, and most of them are ending up in the hands of “whales”: for example, a wallet that had been inactive for more than ten years moved 35.0 BTC worth 2.0 million dollars to a new address. According to the Santiment platform, last month the number of wallets containing more than 100.0 BTC increased by 0.283 thousand to 16.2 thousand, a maximum in the last 17 months. In turn, according to analysts at Farside Investors, at the beginning of the month, the leading Bitcoin ETFs collectively lost 287.8 million dollars, which was the largest daily figure since May 1, when investors withdrew more than 500.0 million dollars from the funds, and on Thursday this figure was 211.1 million dollars. Experts at Kaiko have recorded an oversupply of “digital gold” on the market amid the sell-off of government reserves, particularly in Germany, and the sale of assets from the bankrupt Mt.Gox exchange: management has reimbursed 36.0% of bitcoin assets to creditors, while 90,344 thousand BTC are still valued at 5.8 billion dollars in its wallet. Soon, the platform will have to distribute more than 46.0 thousand BTC for a total of over 2.0 billion dollars, while the first phase of compensation in the amount of about 100.0 thousand BTC was accompanied by a surge in sales of the first cryptocurrency and led to a decrease in its market value.

Last Friday, investors paid attention to the publication of key data on the American labor market: in August, the unemployment rate slightly adjusted from 4.3% to 4.2%. Against this background, the US Federal Reserve may begin to ease monetary policy by cutting the interest rate by 50 basis points at the meeting on September 18. Some experts believe that the adjustment in the cost of borrowing will lead to an increase in risky assets, including digital ones, while others believe that such steps have already been considered by the market, and cryptocurrencies will not receive significant support.

Support and resistance

The BTC/USD pair is held within a long-term downward channel: last week, quotes reached two-month lows, testing the 53125.00 mark (Murrey level [1/8]), but were unable to consolidate below it and recovered some of the lost positions. Nevertheless, the 53125.00 level remains key for the "bears", and its breakdown will ensure a continued decline to the 50000.00 (Murrey level [0/8]) and 46875.00 (Murrey level [-1/8]) marks. If quotes consolidate above the 56250.00 mark (Murrey level [2/8]), we can expect a resumption of growth to the levels of 59375.00 (Murrey level [3/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 62500.00 (Murrey level [4/8], the upper boundary of the descending channel).

Technical indicators generally confirm the continuation of the downtrend: Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, MACD is decreasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is reversing up in the oversold zone, which does not exclude an upward correction, but its potential seems limited.

Resistance levels: 56250.00, 59375.00, 62500.00.

Support levels: 53125.00, 50000.00, 46875.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below 53125.00 or after the price reversal around 59375.00 with targets at 50000.00, 46875.00 and stop-losses at 55300.00 and 61500.00, respectively. Implementation period: 5–7 days.