Current trend

During the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is recovering after a sharp decline over the last two trading sessions, which led to a renewal of the lows of August 20, and is testing 0.6150 for a breakout, supported by New Zealand and Chinese macroeconomic publications.

Thus, the Q2 sales volumes in the industrial sector of New Zealand increased by 0.6% after a decrease of 0.4% QoQ. In addition, export volumes from China in August increased by 8.7% after 7.0% versus the forecast of 6.5%, while imports slowed from 7.2% to 0.5%, below expectations of 2.0%, which led to an increase in the trade surplus from 84.65B dollars to 91.02B dollars versus the forecast of 83.9B dollars.

Today, no key data may follow from the US, and tomorrow, investors will pay attention to the August consumer price index, which may significantly affect expectations regarding the US Fed interest rate adjustment. The current forecasts suggest a slowdown in inflation from 2.9% to 2.6% YoY and the core indicator may remain at 3.2%. The regulator’s meeting is due on September 18, and analysts expect a change in the interest rate by –25 basis points with a probability of about 75.0%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands try reversing into a horizontal plane. The price range is consolidated but remains quite spacious for the current market activity. The MACD indicator is declining, maintaining a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic returned to decline after a short-term growth at the end of last week but is currently approaching the oversold area, indicating the likelihood of corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6158, 0.6177, 0.6200, 0.6221.

Support levels: 0.6124, 0.6100, 0.6085, 0.6068.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 0.6158, with the target at 0.6221. Stop loss — 0.6124. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from the 0.6158 level and a breakdown of 0.6124, with the target at 0.6068. Stop loss — 0.6158.