United States of America

USD is weakening against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Today at 19:15 (GMT 2) a speech by a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Michelle Bowman is expected. The official usually gives fairly accurate estimates regarding possible changes in monetary policy, and this time investors hope to hear signals regarding the size of the interest rate easing. At the end of August, the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, noted that the reduction could be more significant than 25 basis points, but the latest macroeconomic statistics on the labor market could give officials grounds to reconsider this decision. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a minimum reduction in the cost of borrowing by 25 basis points, to 5.00–5.25%, is 73.0%, and this scenario has long been considered into market quotes.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening in pairs with JPY and USD but has negative dynamics against GBP.

Inflation data from Germany was published today, which confirmed the local positive trend: the consumer price index fell by 0.1% in August, leading to a slowdown in the annual indicator from 2.3% to 1.9%, the minimum of March 2021, when the first economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic were recorded. The consumer price index harmonized with EU standards fell from 2.6% to 2.0%. These data give the European Central Bank (ECB) even more confidence that the reduction in borrowing costs at the meeting on September 12 will not lead to a sharp acceleration in the rate of inflation, confirming the opinion of some market participants about a two-times change in the interest rate by the end of the year.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, USD, and JPY.

Today, the data on the labor market for July was published: the unemployment rate fell for the third month in a row, this time from 4.2% to 4.1% due to a sharp increase in employment by 265.0 thousand jobs from 97 thousand a month earlier. The number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 102.3 thousand to 23.7 thousand with preliminary estimates of 115.0 thousand. The average wage level excluding bonuses fell from 5.4% to 5.1%, and with bonuses – from 4.6% to 4.0%.

Japan

JPY is weakening in pairs with EUR and GBP but has positive dynamics against USD.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold a meeting on September 20, and the regulator is expected to raise the cost of borrowing again from the current 0.25%. The difference with the key rate of the US Federal Reserve, due to which the global devaluation of the Japanese currency occurred, is decreasing, which can lead to a significant strengthening of the yen's positions in the USD/JPY pair against the background of the recent growth of Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.9% after a correction of -2.4% earlier. Tomorrow at 01:00 (GMТ 2), market participants will pay attention to the dynamics of the Reuters Tankan business confidence index for September: if it turns out to be above 10.0 points, this will act as a driver for strengthening the positions of the national currency.

Australia

AUD is strengthening in pairs with JPY, EUR, and USD but has a negative dynamic with GBP.

Today, July data on the construction sector was published, which turned out to be positive: the number of issued permits for the construction of new buildings increased by 10.4% after a correction of -6.4% in the previous period. Such dynamics of the indicator were provided by the commercial real estate subsector but permits for the construction of private houses also increased by 0.6% after a fall of 0.5% a month earlier. Also worth noting is the data on the consumer sentiment index from Westpac Banking Corp., which fell by 0.5% after a rise of 2.8%, but not enough to become an argument for changing the plans of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the matter of adjusting monetary policy.

Oil

Quotes continue the local decline that began last week, ahead of the publication of a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which may record a reduction in reserves by 1.400 million barrels after a decrease of 7.400 million barrels earlier.

Even though OPEC member states decided to postpone the planned increase in production quotas in October until December, the US Department of Energy announced the signing of new contracts for the purchase of 3.4 million barrels of oil for delivery in the period from January to March 2025 after the purchase of 4.65 million barrels of oil in July for delivery until the end of this year.