United States of America

USD is growing against EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Positive dynamics are developing after the publication of the August inflation report. The consumer price index increased by 0.2%, acting as a driver for the correction of the indicator from 2.9% to 2.5% YoY. The core indicator, which does not consider the food and fuel, added 0.3% MoM, slightly ahead of experts’ expectations of 0.2% but remained at 3.2% YoY. These data are unlikely to become a key argument for US Fed officials in revising the monetary policy vector, and the probability of the interest rate cut by 25 basis points to 5.00–5.25 is now actively growing. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Instrument, it reached 71.0%, putting pressure on the dollar.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against GBP but is falling against JPY and USD.

Tomorrow, the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet. Following the meeting, the interest rate may be adjusted by 60 basis points, from 4.25% to 3.65%, against a significant inflation weakening. At 9:00 (GMT 2), traders will pay attention to the dynamics of the Spanish consumer price index, which, according to preliminary estimates, will decrease from 2.8% to 2.2%. Yesterday, a similar German indicator was recorded below 2.0% for the first time since the increase in borrowing costs, strengthening economists’ confidence in the timeliness of monetary policy easing.

United Kingdom

GBP is falling against EUR, USD, and JPY.

The currency maintains a neutral position after the publication of the report on the state of the national economy. The July gross domestic product (GDP) did not change MoM, failing to meet the forecasts of 0.2%, and increased from 0.7% to 1.2% YoY, less than analysts’ expectations of 1.4%. The dynamics of the leading sectors of the economy do not suggest a more significant increase in indicators: in July, the industrial production indicator adjusted from 0.8% to –0.8% MoM and from –1.4% to –1.2% YoY.

Japan

JPY is weakening against the USD but strengthening against EUR and GBP.

Ahead of the meeting of the Bank of Japan scheduled for September 20, its representatives speak out in favor of tightening monetary policy. Thus, today, board member Junko Nakagawa said that the regulator would continue to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation move by forecasts. Currently, economic growth is already outpacing them. The gross domestic product (GDP) increased from –2.4% to 2.9%, and now investors focus on the August inflation data, which is due before the meeting.

Australia

AUD is falling against USD, JPY, and GBP but rising against EUR.

The currency’s dynamics are due to macroeconomic data. The September Westpac Banking Corp. consumer sentiment index corrected from 2.8% to –0.5%, the lowest since February. Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released a report on migration, reflecting an increase in short-term arrivals to 658.970K, up 5.4% from last year, while the total number was 1.146M, up 10.4% from before. The number of departures abroad also increased by 10.4% and reached 1.650M.

Oil

Oil prices are trying to regain lost ground today, supported by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which reflected a third consecutive reduction in energy reserves by 2.790M barrels after a decrease of 7.400M barrels earlier.

Investors are evaluating a report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which reports an adjustment to the forecasts for global growth in demand for oil and liquid hydrocarbons soon. It will increase by 0.94M barrels per day to 103.08M barrels per day this year and by 1.52M barrels per day to 104.6M barrels per day next year. Thus, expectations for 2024 have decreased by 210.0K barrels per day and for 2025 – by 340K barrels per day, against which OPEC has the opportunity to increase quotas for production reduction to stop the negative dynamics of oil prices.

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