Current trend

This week, the USD/CAD pair reached the resistance level of 1.3615, after which the quotes began to fall, caused by the strengthening of the Canadian dollar due to the publication of positive macroeconomic data. Thus, the number of building permits in July increased by 22.1% MoM and was significantly higher than the forecast of 6.5%, and the previous value changed from –13.9% to –13.0%. The housing price index was 0.2%, although analysts expected zero dynamics, affecting the Q3 gross domestic product (GDP).

The American dollar is falling amid labor market data. Initial jobless claims reached 230.0K, above expectations of 227.0K, and the previous value changed from 227.0K to 228.0K. The sector, which the US Fed is currently paying special attention to, is cooling, so any negative publications will affect the national currency negatively.

In the long term, the trading instrument is moving in a downward trend. After reaching the support level of 1.3438 in August, the price went into a correction, within which it reached the resistance level of 1.3615, reversed, and fell to 1.3570. After a breakdown, it may reach the support level of 1.3493 and the August low of 1.3438. If the instrument tests the resistance level of 1.3615, long positions, with the target at the trend border of 1.3780, are relevant.

The medium-term trend is downward. This week, the asset reached the key resistance area of ​​1.3641–1.3623, reversed, and began a negative trend to 1.3540 and the August low of 1.3440. In case of growth and overcoming the trend line of 1.3641–1.3623, the medium-term priority will change upwards, and long positions, with the target in zone 2 (1.3830–1.3811), will become relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.3615, 1.3780.

Support levels: 1.3570, 1.3493, 1.3438.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 1.3555, with the target at 1.3493 and stop loss 1.3583. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 1.3660, with the target at 1.3780 and stop loss 1.3615.