Current trend

The XAU/USD pair returned to 2580.0 near the year’s highs due to demand for the metal in physical form and in the form of contracts.

In addition, after a long period of maintaining peak interest rates, leading regulators are moving to a “dovish” course. The European Central Bank (ECB) is the leader in easing monetary policy, having reduced the cost of borrowing from 4.25% to 3.65%. Amid a sharp change in the indicator, uncertainty arose in the market, causing an outflow of funds from foreign exchange assets in favor of metals. The US Fed will make its decision on September 17. On Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams confirmed that officials are ready to adjust the interest rate but in his further comments, analysts caught a hint of a minimal change of –25 basis points.

The influx of new investors into gold is confirmed by leading trading platforms. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of long positions in the category of contracts backed by real money is 246.214K, above the previous annual record of 242.314K. The position of sellers in this category is still uncompetitive and amounts to only 19.505K transactions. A virtually identical situation is observed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group). Over the past week, the average daily trading volume of gold contracts is 376.2K, much higher than the August average of 134.0K, while on September 12 and 13, there was an increase in the option position from 70.0–77.0K at the beginning of last week to 134.5K, which may precede significant fluctuations soon.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is rising, holding above the resistance line of the long-term ascending channel 2560.0–2400.0.

Technical indicators are strengthening the buy signal: fast EMAS on the Alligator indicator are retreating from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming correction bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 2610.0, 2680.0.

Support levels: 2560.0, 2470.0.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 2610.0, with the target at 2680.0. Stop loss — 2580.0. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 2560.0, with the target at 2470.0. Stop loss — 2600.0.