DXY: DEBATE ON 50 VS 25 CONTINUES TO DOMINATE – OCBC
The US Dollar (USD) continued to trade on a back foot as markets re-price for higher likelihood of 50bps cut at upcoming FOMC, OCBC’s FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Mild bullish momentum on daily chart
“It remains a close call whether Fed cuts 50 or 25bp. While the magnitude of Fed cut may impact USD moves, Fed’s commentary and dot plot guidance should play a slightly more lasting effect than a 25 or 50bp first cut. The dot plot should provide a reality check on market expectations with regards to rate cut trajectory. As of writing, markets are still expecting 120bps cut for 2024 (with 3 more Fed meetings to go).”
“Apart from rate cut trajectory, global growth momentum matters for USD. If Fed cut is non-recessionary driven and that growth outside-US continues to trudge along (not-hot-not cold), then it is more likely that the USD can remain back footed while other FX, sensitive to growth and rates can outperform (i.e. KRW, MYR, THB).”
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