Current trend

The AUD/USD pair is correcting upward at 0.6746 amid the weakening American dollar.

This week, Australia will publish data on the labor market. The forecast assumes that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%, facilitated by a slowdown in the rate of employment growth from 58.2K to 25.8K. The share of the economically active population will likely remain at 67.1%, above the summer average of 67.0%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting is due on September 24. Experts agree that the interest rate will be kept at 4.35%. The likelihood of its increase is currently the priority scenario since inflation remains stably high.

The American dollar is moving in a downward trend near the annual low of 100.30 in USDX amid a change in forecasts regarding the results of the US Fed meeting. While last week most analysts expected that the cost of borrowing would be adjusted by –25 basis points, today, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Instrument, the probability of this scenario is only 31.0%, and an adjustment by –50 basis points is 69.0%. According to the assumptions of analysts from the Financial Times, the regulator could have intentionally signaled a more aggressive reduction in the cost of borrowing to attract more traders to the market interested in speculative transactions that will make price fluctuations more volatile.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument returns to the resistance line of the channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6850–0.6530. Technical indicators strengthen the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator reversed and are moving away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is growing in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6850.

Support levels: 0.6730, 0.6650.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price consolidates above 0.6770, with the target at 0.6850. Stop loss – 0.6730. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price consolidates below 0.6730, with the target at 0.6650. Stop loss – 0.6760.