Daily digest market movers: Retail Sales do not create waves
- Retail Sales data for August are due to come out at 12:30 GMT. Monthly Retail Sales are expected to increase by 0.2% after growing by 1.0% in July. Sales excluding Cars and Transportation are expected to marginally move by 0.3%, from 0.4% the prior month.
- At 13:15 GMT, Industrial Production data for August is expected to turn flat at 0.0%, out of contraction of 0.6% in July.
- At 14:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan will deliver welcoming remarks at the Eleventh District Banking Conference in Dallas. Logan isn't expected to talk about monetary policy because the Fed is within its blackout period ahead of its meeting on Wednesday.
- At that same time, 14:00 GMT, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) will release September’s Housing Market Index, with a steady 40 expected against the previous reading of 39.
- Japanese equities started their week after the bank holiday on Monday. Both the Topix and the Nikkei are down over 0.50%. European and US equities are looking in another direction and are heading in the green.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a further declining chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday, by only 33.0%, further down from the 66% seen a week ago. Meanwhile, markets have increased the chances of a 50 bps cut to 67.0%. For the November 7 meeting, another 25 bps cut (if September is a 25 bps cut) is expected by 18.0%, while there is a 52.3% chance that rates will be 75 bps (25 bps 50 bps) and a 29.7% probability of rates being 100 (25 bps 75 bps) basis points lower compared to current levels.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 3.61%, nearing the 15-month low of 3.60%.
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