Today’s Fed rate decision (1900 BST) is approaching. Markets have recently leaned narrowly in favour of a 50bp cut rather than 25bp, and ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole thinks that the September FOMC will deliver a 25bp cut, and this may be an exceptionally close call, he notes.
Powell to open the door to larger cuts ahead
“The key risk for the Fed here: Chair Jerome Powell would need to provide solid macro justifications for a half-point move to avoid sounding too sensitive to market rate expectations. Incidentally, Powell would need to show the 50bp cut isn’t a ‘panic’ move: i.e. the Fed is not overly worried about recession and the jobs market.”
“We see 25bp as slightly more likely. However, we believe the Fed would accompany a more cautious cut with dovish messaging. That could include a few members voting for 50bp and Powell opening the door to larger cuts ahead.”
Disclaimer: The content above represents only the views of the author or guest. It does not represent any views or positions of FOLLOWME and does not mean that FOLLOWME agrees with its statement or description, nor does it constitute any investment advice. For all actions taken by visitors based on information provided by the FOLLOWME community, the community does not assume any form of liability unless otherwise expressly promised in writing.
Hot
No comment on record. Start new comment.