United States of America

USD is declining today in pairs with EUR and GBP but has positive dynamics with JPY.

The American dollar is demonstrating a downtrend amid the US Federal Reserve's decision to adjust the interest rate by 50 basis points at once, from 5.25–5.50% to 4.75–5.00%. In his speech, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, noted the achievement of the target inflation level of 2.0%, but hinted that the decline in the indicator may continue: the new macroeconomic forecast assumes that by the end of the year the growth rate of consumer prices will reach 2.3% against previous estimates of 2.6%, and the economy – 2.0% compared to 2.1% expected in July. Thus, the US Federal Reserve assumes that this year the key rate will reach 4.50%, and by the end of 2025 it will be 3.40%.

Eurozone

EUR is declining against GBP but is strengthening against USD and JPY.

Yesterday, after the publication of the consumer price index (CPI) data, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said that, despite reaching the 2.2% mark, inflation is still above the target level of 2.0%, and by the end of the year it could even rise to 2.5%. In this regard, he believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) should not rush to switch to a “dovish” monetary policy course. Most likely, Nagel is hinting that the next adjustment in borrowing costs should not be expected before December.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against all its main competitors – EUR, JPY, and USD.

The British currency quotes were supported by the Bank of England's (BoE) decision to keep the key rate at 5.00% against the backdrop of inflation remaining at around 2.2%, above the target level of 2.0%, and a change in the dynamics of the consumer price index (CPI) from downward to neutral. The indicator for the services sector is at 5.6%, which increases the likelihood of a pause in the parameter adjustment: out of nine members of the BoE’s council, only one voted for a reduction in interest rates, and the remaining eight supported keeping them at the current level. In the long term, this decision will put pressure on prices, and if inflation in September shows negative dynamics, the Bank of England may continue to reduce the cost of borrowing next month.

Japan

JPY is declining against all its major competitors – EUR, GBP, and USD.

The yen is demonstrating negative dynamics against the backdrop of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the key rate by 50 basis points, due to which the difference in the monetary approaches of the two countries’ central banks has narrowed too quickly, and, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates tomorrow, the pressure on the national currency will increase significantly. Before the meeting at 01:30 (GMT 2), investors will pay attention to inflation statistics: the national consumer price index (CPI) may rise from 2.7% to 2.8%, remaining in the “red” zone for the fourth consecutive month.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against all its major competitors – USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Positive dynamics are developing after the publication of the labor market report: according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), in August the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.2% amid employment growth to 14.568 million people, and its ratio to the population adjusted from 64.2% to 64.3%, while the share of the economically active population was fixed at 67.1%, and the monthly number of hours worked increased to 1.962 million. Positive dynamics in the sector will be one of the key factors in favor of a minimal interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at the meeting on September 24, but for now the consensus forecast assumes it will remain at 4.35%.

Oil

Quotes are rising today, staying just above the $73.0 per barrel mark.

Despite a slight increase in inventories this week according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), yesterday's report on commercial inventories from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) showed another decrease of 1.6 million barrels (˗0.4%) to 417.5 million barrels, much lower than the 0.100 million barrels expected by analysts. The level of oil production in the United States for the week ending September 13 fell by 100 thousand barrels to 13.2 million barrels per day, and the average level of production in the country was 13.39 million barrels per day, higher than 13.34 million barrels in July. Against this backdrop, the US Department of Energy also raised its forecast for average production by the end of 2024 by 20.0 thousand barrels per day, to 13.25 million barrels per day, but the forecast for 2025 was reduced by the same 20.0 thousand barrels per day, to 13.67 million barrels per day.