Current trend

The AUD/USD pair is correcting upward at 0.6816. The Australian currency has returned to a moderate upward trend supported by labor market statistics.

Thus, in August, unemployment decreased by about 10.0K, while employment accelerated by 47.0K, keeping the overall unemployment rate at 4.2%, while the share of the economically active population increased to a record level of 67.1%. The employment-to-population ratio increased by 0.1% to 64.3%, approaching the historical high of 64.4% from November 2023. The positive dynamics reflect high demand for jobs, as the number of vacancies is still limited, which prevents the sector from further growth. The University of Melbourne’s Leading Indicators Index has been at 0.0% for the second month, reflecting uncertainty in the national economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting will take place on September 24, when the US Fed’s interest rate will already be known. Some analysts already expect officials to keep the indicator unchanged.

The American dollar is trading in a downtrend at 100.20 in the USDX, despite the decrease in initial jobless claims number from 231.0K to 219.0K, the low since May, when less than 210.0K applications were recorded. The total claims number decreased from 1.843M to 1.829M against the forecast of 1.850M. On the other hand, the existing home sales corrected from 3.96M to 3.86M, not justifying the preliminary estimates of 3.92M.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, approaching the resistance line of the channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6850–0.6550. Technical indicators strengthen the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is growing in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6850, 0.6950.

Support levels: 0.6790, 0.6690.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6850, with the target at 0.6950. Stop loss is 0.6800. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 0.6790, with the target at 0.6690. Stop loss is 0.6850.