Current trend

The USD/JPY pair is correcting around 143.67 after the publication of the results of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting, during which the interest rate was kept at 0.25%.

In the accompanying statement, officials indicated that the national economy is recovering moderately, with exports and industrial production stable, corporate profits and investment, as well as private consumption increasing, despite inflation in the range of 2.5–3.0%. Gross domestic product (GDP) is also expected to continue its positive dynamics, and prices will remain high until the end of 2025. At the same time, the main risks remain associated with the uncertainty of the global economy, commodity prices, and the behavior of companies regarding wage indexation.

At a subsequent press conference, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke about inflation, noting that today's data turned out to be better than expected: the national core consumer price index (CPI) in August was 2.8% YoY and 0.5% MoM, confirming a slight increase in the indicator. Such dynamics justify a tighter monetary policy, which the Japanese regulator began to implement in March 2024. Thus, at today's meeting, officials took a break, allowing sellers to adjust the price down and strengthening the upward movement in the USD/JPY pair to 143.63 with a target of 144.10. Analysts are confident that the current position of the regulator will remain unchanged until the end of 2024 and will probably extend to 2025, which is at odds with the policy of the US Federal Reserve: on September 18, the American regulator cut the interest rate by 50 basis points for the first time in four years. Due to the difference in monetary approaches, the Japanese yen is likely to continue to strengthen in the long term, while the US dollar will move into a downtrend after the correction is complete.

Support and resistance

Long-term trend is downward: this week, the instrument updated the December minimum near the support level of 140.50, which was held by buyers, causing an upward correction. Today, growth continues amid the preservation of the interest rate by the BoJ, and its target is the resistance level of 144.10, upon breaking through which the upward movement will intensify to 147.00, and then to 149.25.

Medium-term trend is downward: in early September, traders broke through the target zone (143.89–143.38), and now the sales target is zone 2 (138.78–138.30). Currently, the price is correcting upward with targets of 145.27–144.75, after reaching which it is worth considering short positions with a potential test of the level of 142.43 and 139.57.

Resistance levels: 144.10, 147.00, 149.25.

Support levels: 140.50, 137.63, 134.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 144.10 with a target of 140.50 and a stop-loss of 145.30. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 145.30 with a target of 149.25 and a stop-loss of 143.70.