• The Dow Jones rose into yet another record high, but bidders remain unconfident.
• Consumer confidence surveys show US spenders still fear higher inflation.
• Fedspeak deviations continue, but rate markets price in higher odds of another double cut.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ground its way into another record bid on Tuesday, but price action remains tepid and intraday momentum is struggling to outpace the 42,000 level. The CB Consumer Confidence Index for September dropped to the bottom end of a familiar two-year range, and Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman has leaned into her dissent of the Fed’s recent 50-bps rate cut.

Consumer confidence deteriorated across the board on Tuesday, and consumer expectations of 12-month inflation accelerated to 5.2%. Consumers also reported a general weakening of their six-month family financial situation outlook, and consumer assessments of overall business conditions have turned negative.

As explained by the Conference Board’s chief economist Dana Peterson, “Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.”

Fed Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman made waves last week as the sole dissenter to the Fed’s nearly unanimous decision to trim interest rates by an outsized 50 bps. Fed Governor Bowman advocated for a smaller 25 bps cut, citing ongoing concerns that the Fed may be moving prematurely before confirming that inflation will continue to ease toward the target 2% band.

While addressing a banking group in Kentucky, Fed Governor Bowman explained that the jumbo rate cut last week “could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price-stability mandate. Accomplishing our mission of returning to low and stable inflation at our 2 percent goal is necessary to foster a strong labor market and an economy that works for everyone in the longer term.”