Current trend

The USD/CHF pair is showing ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session, holding near 0.8475, as market activity remains low despite US macroeconomic statistics and the Fed’s –50 basis points adjustment of interest rates last week.

In addition, the regulator slightly reduced its forecasts for the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) growth this and next year and renewed inflation expectations, which imply further gradual easing of monetary policy. In 2024, the consumer price index may slow to 2.3% from 2.6% previously, and in 2025 – to 2.1% from 2.3%. Yesterday, the US currency was under pressure from business activity data. The September services PMI fell from 55.7 points to 55.4 points, and the manufacturing PMI – from 47.9 points to 47.0 points, although experts expected an increase to 48.5 points.

Meanwhile, most economists polled by Reuters believe that at the December meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may change the interest rate by –25 basis points for the third time, bringing it to 1.00%. Last month, inflation reached 1.1%, the low among the G10 economies, having settled in the middle of the target range of 0.0–2.0%. Officials are unlikely to decide to adjust the indicator by –50 basis points as the US Fed since the value is now only 1.25%. In turn, 18 out of 32 analysts expect the regulator to maintain the current cost of borrowing. Experts assume the interest rate will reach 0.75% in March and remain at this level until 2026.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat: the price range remains almost unchanged, remaining quite spacious for activity in the market. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, approaching “80”, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating that the American dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.8476, 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541.

Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400, 0.8365.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 0.8476, with the target at 0.8517. Stop loss — 0.8460. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 0.8450, with the target at 0.8400. Stop loss — 0.8476.