EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a correction after a fairly active decline the day before. The instrument is testing 1.1115 for a breakout. Today at 10:00 (GMT 2) in Germany, September data from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) was published: the Business Climate index fell from 86.6 points to 85.4 points, while analysts expected 86.0 points, and the Economic Expectations index fell from 86.8 points to 86.3 points. In addition, the focus of traders is on September business activity statistics from S&P Global, which became the main reason for the weakening of the single currency the day before: the Manufacturing PMI of the eurozone fell from 45.8 points to 44.8 points with a forecast of 45.6 points, and the Services PMI — from 52.9 points to 50.5 points with preliminary estimates of 52.4 points. Similar indicators in Germany fell from 42.4 points to 40.3 points and from 51.2 points to 50.6 points, respectively. It is worth noting that the data on business activity in the US, presented yesterday, also turned out to be worse than analysts expected: the Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 47.9 points to 47.0 points, while experts expected 48.5 points, and the Services PMI went from 55.7 points to 55.4 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with an upward trend, developing a fairly strong "bullish" momentum formed in the short-term and ultra-short-term. The instrument is testing 1.3360 for a breakout, updating record highs from March 2022. The GBP/USD quotes are supported by the fact that the US Federal Reserve System reduced the cost of borrowing last week: the regulator decided to adjust the value by –50 basis points at once. In addition, officials also revised their forecasts for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the current and next years, and released updated inflation forecasts that generally suggest further gradual monetary easing in 2024 and 2025. In turn, the Bank of England kept borrowing costs unchanged, but the regulator is also expected to take further steps towards easing monetary policy in the near future. The pound's growth on Monday was not hindered by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from S&P Global on business activity in the UK: the Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 52.5 points to 51.5 points with a forecast of 52.3 points, and the Services PMI — from 53.7 points to 52.8 points, while analysts expected 53.5 points.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing quite active growth, developing a newly strengthened "bullish" trend in the short term. The instrument is testing 0.6280 for a breakout, updating the local highs of August 29. As before, the NZD/USD pair is supported by some weakness in the American currency, which remains under pressure after the US Federal Reserve's reduction in borrowing costs last week. The regulator adjusted the interest rate by –50 basis points at once, and also signaled in favor of two more reductions in the rate by the end of the current year. The inflation forecast for 2024 was revised from 2.6% to 2.3%, and for 2025 — from 2.3% to 2.1%. Thus, the American regulator demonstrates confidence that the growth of consumer prices is under control, which allows it to plan further easing of monetary parameters in the near future. New Zealand's macroeconomic statistics released yesterday showed a slowdown in Exports in August from 6.09 billion dollars to 4.97 billion dollars and an acceleration in Imports from 7.10 billion dollars to 7.17 billion dollars, leading to an increase in the trade deficit from –1.016 billion dollars to –2.203 billion dollars. In turn, the American currency was pressured on Monday by business activity statistics: the Services PMI in September fell from 55.7 points to 55.4 points, and the Manufacturing PMI — from 47.9 points to 47.0 points, while forecasts suggested growth to 48.5 points.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing moderate growth: the instrument is testing 144.00 for a breakout, while traders are assessing the macroeconomic statistics on business activity from Japan, published today. The Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in September was adjusted from 49.8 points to 49.6 points with a forecast of 49.9 points. In addition, similar data from the US were presented the day before: the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global fell from 47.9 points to 47.0 points, while analysts expected 49.5 points, and the Services PMI — from 55.7 points to 55.4 points with preliminary estimates of 55.2 points. Pressure on the US currency also remains after the US Federal Reserve's borrowing cost adjustment last week: the American regulator cut the interest rate by 50 basis points at once, and does not rule out the possibility of further easing of monetary policy until the end of 2024. The Bank of Japan, which also met last week, made no changes to its current monetary policy settings. At the same time, the Governor of the Japanese regulator, Kazuo Ueda, noted that he continues to closely monitor the development of the situation, but at the moment officials need to fully assess the effect of the doubling of the cost of borrowing this year.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair continues to grow quite actively, updating record highs and holding near 2640.00 during the Asian session. The upward trend is supported by the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut borrowing costs by 50 basis points, which allows market participants to expect continued easing of monetary parameters. Now investors are adjusting their forecasts for interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England and a number of other major financial regulators, while the US Fed is planning at least two more adjustments to the indicator by –25 or even –50 basis points before the end of this year. The US Federal Reserve officials also changed their estimates for inflation dynamics from 2.6% to 2.3% for 2024 and from 2.3% to 2.1% for 2025, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2.1% to 2.0%, and Unemployment from 4.0% to 4.4%. Another factor in the growth of the XAU/USD pair is the ongoing uncertainty: first of all, this concerns the development of military conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Israel's latest attacks on Lebanon could lead to a significant escalation in the region if Iran also announces its involvement in the fighting. This, in turn, practically nullifies the parties’ earlier plans for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. It is also worth noting the upcoming US presidential elections, which will take place in November: investors assume that in the event of a possible victory by Republican candidate Donald Trump, the vector of the country's foreign policy will be significantly changed, which will also affect the geopolitical situation around the world.