Current trend

The price of the benchmark Brent Crude Oil is correcting in an upward trend just below 74.00, gradually recovering against increasing tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and the Lebanese paramilitary organization Hezbollah is intensifying, and investors fear an invasion of Lebanon, which will put pressure on traffic and support the quotes.

Against this background, traders continue to rebalance positions in the asset: last week, the gap in the exchange positions of producers began to narrow again. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the indicator is 357.639K for buyers against 309.592K for sellers. In total, the spread narrowed by almost 20.0K positions over the week, confirming the ongoing uncertainty in the market and the creation of a hedging position in anticipation of increased volatility. Trading volumes on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) remain high: the daily indicator stays within 0.990–1.200M contracts, approximately in line with the average values ​​of 1.13–1.16M transactions in August. However, the option position is still too small to expect a possible price increase: on Friday, the option position was only 110.0K, much lower than the monthly average of 213.0K.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves within the correction channel 80.00–68.00, rising to the range resistance line against the correction. Technical indicators are slowing down the sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO histogram has formed several ascending bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 74.50, 77.00.

Support levels: 72.50, 69.40.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 74.50, with the target at 77.00. Stop loss is 73.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 72.50, with the target at 69.40. Stop loss is 74.00.