Oil prices rose by 4% (Brent) and 4.8% (WTI) last week. For Brent, it was the strongest weekly increase since April, for WTI since February. However, this only partially reversed the heavy losses seen at the beginning of September, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

No reason for a significant widening of the risk premium

“Both Brent and WTI are still trading below the levels seen at the end of August. The latest escalation of the Middle East conflict is driving up prices. Over the weekend, there were heavy clashes between Israel and the Shiite terrorist militia Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The trigger was the killing of numerous Hezbollah members by targeted explosions of communication devices last week, for which Israel is being blamed.”

“The Middle East conflict has been going on for almost a year now, without any significant supply disruptions on the oil market. The attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea on merchant ships and oil tankers have only led to a realignment of transport routes and to delays in shipments. Oil producers remain not directly involved in the conflict. This applies only indirectly to Iran, which supports the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas and Hezbollah.”

“However, oil supplies from Iran have actually increased further in recent months despite the still-existing US sanctions. It is unlikely that the conflict between Israel and Hizbollah will lead to supply disruptions in the oil market, unless a further escalation results in an Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure or Iran impedes passage through the Strait of Hormuz. We still consider the risk of this to be very low. In our opinion, there is con the oil price and a further price increase.”