Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is correcting downwards after yesterday’s growth, when it retreated from the lows of February 9 and is testing 1.3465 for a breakdown, while traders expect new drivers for movement to emerge.

At 14:30 (GMT 2), investors will pay attention to the US durable goods orders. Forecasts suggest that the August indicator will decrease from 9.8% to –2.6%, and excluding transport, it will increase from –0.2% to 0.1%. At the same time, statistics on jobless claims for the week ending September 20 are due. The initial claims may rise from 219.0K to 225.0K, and continuous claims for the week ending September 13 may remain at 1.829M. The trading session will end with a series of speeches by representatives of the US Fed, including the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell. Traders hope to hear comments on further prospects for easing monetary policy.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem noted that, given the slowdown in inflation, further interest rate cuts should be expected. The officials intend to keep the consumer price index in the middle of the target range of 1.0–3.0%. The August indicator reached 2.0%, the lowest since the beginning of 2021. The next department meeting is due on October 23, and the probability of a –50 basis point adjustment in borrowing costs exceeds 58.0%, with another change of –25 basis points expected in December.

On Friday at 14:30 (GMT 2), Canada will publish July gross domestic product data. According to preliminary estimates, the economy will show a minimal growth of 0.1% after the zero dynamics earlier.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are trying to reverse downwards. The price range is expanding but not as fast as the “bearish” sentiment develops. The MACD indicator is declining, but it maintains a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, approaching “20”, reversed horizontally, indicating that the US currency may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3486, 1.3500, 1.3524, 1.3550.

Support levels: 1.3465, 1.3440, 1.3419, 1.3400.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.3465, with the target at 1.3419. Stop loss — 1.3486. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Long positions may be opened after a rebound from 1.3465 and a breakout of 1.3486, with the target at 1.3524. Stop loss — 1.3465.