Current trend

The NZD/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, leveling out the results of the significant growth the day before: the instrument is again testing 0.6300 for a breakdown, while traders are awaiting the publication of statistics from the US on the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which will take place today at 14:30 (GMT 2).

The US Federal Reserve uses this indicator when assessing average inflation: analysts expect the indicator to slow down in annual terms in August from 2.5% to 2.3%, and in monthly terms from 0.2% to 0.1%, while the Core CPE will probably adjust from 2.6% to 2.7% in annual terms and remain at 0.2% in monthly terms. Any significant fluctuations in the indicator may lead to changes in expectations regarding a further reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US regulator. The market is currently counting on two more interest rate cuts by at least 25 basis points each before the end of 2024. In addition, data on Personal Income (expected to increase from 0.3% to 0.4%) and Spending (expected to slow down from 0.5% to 0.3%) will be released today. Finally, the market will receive a report from the University of Michigan on the Consumer Confidence index, which may rise from 69.0 points to 69.3 points in September.

Today's statistics from New Zealand were optimistic, but did not provide much support to the instrument: the Consumer Confidence level from the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) in September demonstrated a confident increase from 92.2 points to 95.1 points. Earlier, data from Stats NZ recorded a correction in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by –0.2% quarter-on-quarter, and GDP per capita by –0.5%, reflecting negative dynamics for the seventh quarter in a row. Against this background, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) needs to take more aggressive steps to adjust borrowing costs at the next meetings to avoid the national economy moving into recession.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart demonstrate confident growth: the price range slightly expands from above, freeing the way for the "bulls" to new local highs. MACD is trying to reverse into a downward plane, maintaining the previous buy signal (the histogram is located above the signal line). Stochastic is developing a downward trend, having formed an uncertain sell signal in the ultra-short term and retreated from the level of "80".

Resistance levels: 0.6330, 0.6355, 0.6380, 0.6400.

Support levels: 0.6300, 0.6280, 0.6254, 0.6221.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after a confident breakout of 0.6280 downwards with a target of 0.6221. Stop-loss — 0.6310. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 0.6280 as support followed by a breakout of 0.6300 may become a signal to open new long positions with a target of 0.6355. Stop-loss — 0.6270.