Current trend

The USD/CHF pair is correcting in the area of 0.8476 after a sharp decline the day before, which did not allow the instrument to consolidate at the local highs of September 23.

Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), investors will pay attention to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index data: the Core indicator is expected to rise to 2.7% from 2.6% on an annual basis, but remain at 0.2% on a monthly basis, while the PCE is likely to adjust from 2.5% to 2.3% and from 0.2% to 0.1%, respectively, which may increase expectations for further reduction in borrowing costs by the US Federal Reserve. Recall that last week, for the first time since 2020, the regulator announced a reduction in borrowing costs by 50 basis points at once, and also signaled in favor of a possible easing of parameters during the two remaining meetings until the end of 2024. At the same time, markets are again doubtful about a possible adjustment step in November, suggesting that the key influence on the final decision will be macroeconomic statistics coming to the market.

Meanwhile, market participants are assessing the results of the meeting of the Swiss National Bank, which ended the day before: as expected, officials cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% for the third time in a row amid a sharp slowdown in inflation (in August, the indicator fell to 1.1%). Forecasts for the dynamics of the Consumer Price Index were also revised: in 2024, the Swiss regulator expects a correction to 1.2% against the previous estimate of 1.3%, and in 2025 and 2026 — at the levels of 0.6% and 0.7% compared to 1.1 and 1.0%, respectively. At the same time, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may add 1.0% this year, and 1.5% in 2025. Swiss National Bank Governor Thomas Jordan, who is stepping down at the end of this month, acknowledged that further cuts in borrowing costs may be needed over the next three months to maintain price stability, but did not comment on the number of adjustments or their size. He said the vector of future monetary policy could be determined in December, when a new inflation forecast is presented.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a reversal to the horizontal plane: the price range is almost unchanged, but remains quite narrow for the current level of activity on the market. MACD is growing, maintaining a weak buy signal (the histogram is located above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, but again approaches its highs, which indicates the risks of the US dollar being overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541, 0.8570.

Support levels: 0.8476, 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a confident breakout of 0.8500 with a target of 0.8541. Stop-loss — 0.8476. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

Short positions should be opened at the current price with a target of 0.8429 and a stop loss of 0.8470.