United States of America

USD is weakening against JPY and has ambiguous dynamics against EUR and GBP.

Investors are focusing on the price index for personal consumption expenditures, the key one for the US Fed. The August index fell from 0.2% to 0.1% MoM and 2.5% to 2.3% YoY, exceeding the forecast of 2.2%, while the core indicator adjusted from 0.2% to 0.1% and from 2.6% to 2.7%, respectively. Inflationary pressures are easing, raising the prospect of further significant interest rate cuts. Most experts expect the Fed will cut the rates twice by the end of the year, in November and December, for a total of 50–75 basis points. The Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has said she strongly supports a –50 basis point change in borrowing costs to prevent a weakening of employment.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against JPY but has ambiguous dynamics against USD and GBP.

The September RU consumer and business confidence index fell from 96.5 points to 96.2 points amid fears of a slowdown in the German economy, which is on the brink of recession. The unemployment rate is 6.0%. However, the total number of unemployed citizens increased by 17.0K to 2.82M, exceeding the forecast of 13.0K. The German Federal Labor Office reported 696.0K new vacancies, which is 65.0K less than in the same period last year. Investors are assessing the August European Central Bank (ECB) report on inflation expectations. Most respondents assume that in the next twelve months, the average growth of consumer prices will reach not 2.8%, as previously thought, but only 2.7%, the lowest in the last three years.

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against JPY but has ambiguous dynamics against EUR and USD.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) retail sales index for September was released today, rising from –27.0 to 4.0, well above the preliminary estimate of –17.0. It is the fastest pace of growth since May. However, business leaders say sales volumes are still below normal for this time of year and expect a further recovery soon.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

The Tokyo metropolitan area CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.2% in September, while the core CPI fell from 2.4% to 2.0% YoY, in line with the Bank of Japan’s target of slowing but holding steady, raising the prospect of further monetary tightening. Today, Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. He will become the country’s new Prime Minister. During a press conference, the official said that every effort must be made to bring the national economy out of deflation and promised to take additional steps to increase wages.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR, GBP, and USD but weakening against JPY.

Currently, the visit of the Chief Treasurer of Australia, Jim Chalmers, to Beijing is underway. The official said that the countries agreed on further cooperation in investment, trade, and decarbonization. Chalmers and the head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China, Zheng Shanjie, also spent more than three hours condemning new measures to stimulate the Chinese economy. The economic recovery of Australia’s leading trading partner, which primarily buys iron ore, coal, and food products, is important for national producers.

Oil

The morning growth of oil prices changed to a decline amid the imminent release of additional volumes of Libyan crude to the market. However, the expectation of new economic incentives from the Chinese authorities limits the negative dynamics.

Yesterday, competing political groups in Libya settled the dispute by signing a corresponding agreement, and soon, oil production in the country may increase by 600.0K barrels per day. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China has reduced interest rates and sent additional liquidity to the banking system to help the economy achieve growth of 5.0%. In addition, according to Reuters agency’s sources, OPEC and its allies are discussing a new increase in oil production by 180.0K barrels per day starting in December.