FPG Fortune Prime Global 美国股市行情报告 2024年10月01日

US Stock Futures Slightly Negative Amid Central Bank Uncertainty

US stock futures drifted flat to slightly negative on Tuesday after the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high on Monday. Investors are digesting the latest remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated the possibility of further rate cuts depending on economic conditions.

Market Overview:

- Dow Futures: -0.1%

- S&P 500 Futures: -0.15%

- Nasdaq 100 Futures: -0.2%

Key Performance (As of October 1):

- S&P 500: +0.42%, reaching a new record close.

- Nasdaq Composite: +0.38%, extending gains.

- Dow Jones: +0.04%, slightly positive.

Market Drivers:

1. Fed's Rate Outlook: During a speech at the **National Association for Business Economics**, Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed's decisions will depend on economic data, suggesting that two **quarter-point rate cuts** could still occur if conditions align with their forecasts. Currently, markets are pricing in a **65% probability** of a **25 basis point rate cut** in November.

2. Sector Performance: In Monday's session, 9 of 11 **S&P sectors** advanced, with notable gains in **energy**, **communication services**, and **real estate**. These sectors are benefiting from positive sentiment around interest rate expectations and improving economic data.

Upcoming Economic Data:

- **September Jobs Report**: Investors await this critical indicator of labor market health, which could further influence the Fed’s rate path.

- **JOLTS Job Openings**: This report will provide insight into labor demand and market tightness.

- **ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs**: Both indicators will offer a view of the broader economic outlook, especially as manufacturing has been under pressure in recent months.

Conclusion:

With uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions, markets are expected to remain volatile in the coming weeks. Investors will be closely watching key economic reports for signals on the Fed's next move, especially as expectations lean toward a more modest **25 basis point rate cut** in November. Looking ahead, the odds for USTEC and US30 to challenge key level at 20,300 pts and 42,700 pts are high.

Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investments carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult your financial advisor for personalized investment guidance.

美联储不确定性使美国股指期货小幅走低

在周一标普500创下新高收盘后，周二美国股指期货基本持平或略有下跌。投资者正在消化美联储主席鲍威尔的最新讲话，他表示，未来可能会根据经济状况进一步降息。

市场概况：

- 道指期货：-0.1%

- 标普500期货：-0.15%

- 纳斯达克100期货：-0.2%

关键表现（截至10月1日）：

- 标普500指数：上涨0.42%，创下新纪录收盘。

- 纳斯达克综合指数：上涨0.38%，延续涨势。

- 道琼斯指数：微涨0.04%。

市场驱动因素：

1. 美联储的利率展望：在全国商业经济协会的演讲中，美联储主席鲍威尔重申，美联储的决定将取决于经济数据，表明如果条件符合预测，未来可能会有两次25个基点降息。目前市场预计11月降息25个基点的概率为65%。

2. 板块表现：在周一的交易中，标普的11个板块中有9个上涨，能源、通信服务和房地产板块表现突出。这些板块受益于利率预期和经济数据改善的积极情绪。

即将发布的经济数据：

- 9月就业报告：投资者将密切关注这一关键的劳动力市场健康指标，它可能进一步影响美联储的利率路径。

- JOLTS职位空缺：该报告将提供有关劳动力需求和市场紧张状况的洞察。

- ISM制造业和服务业PMI：这两个指标将提供更广泛的经济前景，尤其是在制造业最近几个月面临压力的情况下。

结论：

由于对美联储未来货币政策决策的不确定性，预计未来几周市场将保持波动。投资者将密切关注关键经济报告，以寻找美联储下一步行动的信号，尤其是在11月更倾向于25个基点的温和降息预期的情况下。展望未来，USTEC和US30挑战20,300点和42,700点关键水平的概率较高。

风险免责声明：本报告仅供参考，不构成财务建议。所有投资均有风险，过去的表现不能保证未来结果。请咨询您的财务顾问以获得个性化的投资建议。