Current trend

The BTC/USD pair has been actively increasing for three weeks and tested the 65625.00 level (Murrey [5/8] level) over the weekend. However, it could not break it and corrected to 64600.00. In September, the asset added more than 10.0%, which makes the ending month one of the best in history since, according to Bloomberg analysts, the world’s leading cryptocurrency usually loses up to 5.9% on average during this period.

Monetary factors support the positive dynamics. The beginning of the US Fed’s monetary policy easing is increasing investor interest in risky assets and putting pressure on the American dollar. Meanwhile, the August private consumption expenditures price index decreased from 0.2% to 0.1% MoM and from 2.5% to 2.2% YoY, which increases the likelihood of a further reduction in the cost of borrowing by 50 or 75 basis points by the end of the year. Experts say that an additional stimulus for the growth of the cryptocurrency sector is the reduction of mortgage rates by 0.5% and reserve requirements for commercial banks by the People’s Bank of China, which should lead to the recovery of the financial system and stimulate the recovery of the national economy. Against the correction of monetary policy in the United States and China, the inflow of investments into spot Bitcoin-ETFs has sharply increased, reaching 1.106B dollars last week.

In general, the current fundamental background suggests continued pressure on the American currency in the medium term and the growth of alternative assets. However, experts suggest that it may slow down significantly or even give way to a correction if investors adopt a wait-and-see attitude in connection with the US presidential elections, which are just over a month away.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is trying to leave the long-term downward channel. If it consolidates above 65625.00 (Murrey level [5/8]), the growth will continue to the area of ​​68750.00 (Murrey level [6/8]), 71875.00 (Murrey level [7/8]). However, after a breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands at 62500.00 (Murrey level [4/8]), a correction to the area of ​​56250.00 (Murrey level [2/8]) and 53125.00 (Murrey level [1/8]) may follow.

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone, but Stochastic is reversing downwards near the overbought zone.

Resistance levels: 65625.00, 68750.00, 71875.00.

Support levels: 62500.00, 56250.00, 53125.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 65625.00, with the targets at 68750.00, 71875.00, and stop loss 63000.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 62500.00, with the targets at 56250.00, 53125.00, and stop loss 64700.00.