EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, developing a downward trend in the short term and updating local lows from September 12. The instrument is testing 1.1030 for a breakdown. European investors are assessing today's publication of September business activity statistics from S&P Global. The Manufacturing PMI increased from 48.9 points to 49.6 points while experts expected it to remain at the same level, and the Services PMI rose form 50.5 points to 51.4 points. In addition, the eurozone will release August Producer Price Index data at 11:00 (GMT 2), which will complement the September consumer inflation data released earlier. The Core Consumer Price Index slowed down from 2.8% to 2.7% year-on-year, against neutral expectations, and from 0.3% to 0.1% month-on-month, while the broader measure fell from 2.2% to 1.8%, against expectations of 1.9%. Analysts expect the Producer Price Index to fall 2.4% year-on-year after falling 2.1% the previous month, while the monthly figure is likely to fall from 0.8% to 0.3%. Meanwhile, the American currency received support the day before from the September report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on Employment Change: the indicator increased from 103.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, which exceeded the preliminary value by 20.0 thousand. Tomorrow, the US will release final September data on the labor market, which could have a significant impact on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with a downward momentum, developing a fairly strong "bearish" momentum formed at the end of last week, when the instrument managed to retreat from the record highs of March 2022. The main factor behind the growth of the American currency is the statements made by the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who spoke out against further reduction in the cost of borrowing at a high rate. At the same time, the official does not rule out new steps towards easing monetary policy, including during the next meeting of the regulator. Against this background, the probability of an immediate interest rate adjustment in November by –50 basis points decreased from 53.0% to 35.0%. British investors are assessing the minutes of the Financial Policy Committee meeting on 19 September 2024, published yesterday, when the decision was made to keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.00%. Overall, the document was fairly neutral and did not contain any clear indications of the British regulator's readiness to further adjust monetary policy parameters during the next meeting on November 7. In any case, monetary authorities assess the prospects of the national economy positively, while recognizing the existence of significant global risks. Today, investors focus on the UK Services PMI for September, which fell slightly from 52.8 points to 52.4 points against neutral forecasts. In turn, at 14:30 (GMT 2) the US will present data on the dynamics of jobless claims: it is expected that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 26 will be adjusted from 218.0 thousand to 220.0 thousand.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing a fairly active decline, developing a strong "bearish" impetus formed at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing 0.6235 for a breakdown, while trading participants expect new movement drivers to emerge. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), data on the dynamics of jobless claims in the US will be published: a slight increase in Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 27 from 218.0 thousand to 220.0 thousand is expected, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended September 20 will probably remain in the area of 1.834 million. At 16:00 (GMT 2), the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its September business activity data: the S&P Global Composite PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 55.4 points, according to preliminary estimates, while the Services PMI could rise from 51.5 points to 51.7 points. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will present the final September labor market report: a slight decrease in Nonfarm Payrolls is forecast, from 142.0 thousand to 140.0 thousand, as well as a slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings in monthly terms from 0.4% to 0.3%, while the annual figure may remain unchanged at 3.8%. Data from New Zealand had virtually no impact on the instrument's dynamics: the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Commodity Price Index released today adjusted from 2.1% to 1.8% in September, which could increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to further ease monetary policy. At the start of the week, the focus of investors was on the ANZ Business Confidence: in September, the indicator increased from 50.6 points to 60.9 points, and ANZ Activity Outlook was adjusted from 37.1% to 45.3%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is holding in the area of 146.60, updating local highs from August 20 after the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US. Automatic Data Processing's (ADP) September private sector employment report showed an increase from 103.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, compared to a forecast of 120.0 thousand. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will present the final September data on the labor market: it is expected that Nonfarm Payrolls will remain at 140.0 thousand, and the Average Hourly Earnings in annual terms will be at 3.8%, while in monthly terms the growth rate of the indicator may slow down slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%, which will indirectly mean a further weakening of inflation risks. The Unemployment Rate is likely to remain around 4.2%. It is also worth noting that the level of uncertainty regarding the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting in November was leveled at the beginning of this week after the speech of the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who spoke out against the high rate of reduction in the cost of borrowing and called for abandoning hasty conclusions and decisions in the area of monetary policy. Against this backdrop, markets have significantly reduced expectations for a second interest rate adjustment of –50 basis points in November. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a scenario is about 35.0%, while at the beginning of the week it exceeded 50.0%. Some pressure on the yen's position is being exerted by statistics from Japan: the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 53.9 points to 53.1 points in September, while analysts had expected the previous dynamics to be maintained.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 2650.00 during the Asian session. Market activity is muted as investors await the September US jobs report later this week, with forecasts suggesting Nonfarm Payrolls will remain at around 140.0 thousand and the Unemployment Rate at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings could be steady at 3.8% year-on-year and down from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month. At the same time, investors do not expect these statistics to significantly change their estimates regarding further easing of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy until the end of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has spoken out against adjusting the interest rate by –50 basis points, as the situation allows officials to take their time in making decisions. Experts expect at least one more change in the indicator by –25 basis points in November and, possibly, a second one in December. The asset is receiving moderate support from the increased geopolitical tension following the missile attack on Israeli territory by Iran, which official Tehran called a response to the elimination of the leaders of the Lebanese paramilitary organization Hezbollah and the Palestinian movement Hamas.