• The US Dollar climbed after a bumper NFP print on Friday.
• US jobs additions soared in September, with upside revisions to previous months.
• Market hopes for a follow-up outsized rate cut in November were shattered by jobs growth.

The US Dollar (USD) Index (DXY) climbed into a fifth consecutive bullish day on Friday, driven higher by better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls figures. A firm showing for US jobs gains and an easing in the US Unemployment Rate have hobbled market expectations for a repeat double-cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November.

The US Unemployment Rate dropped back to 4.1% from the previous 4.2%, further reinforcing a healthier-than-expected landscape in the US labor market. In addition, several months’ worth of NFP releases saw healthy upside revisions. August’s previous NFP total was lifted by an additional 17K, while July’s figure rose sharply by 55K, bringing the total up to 144K. 

Annual wage growth also firmed up in September, rising 4.0% YoY from the previous 3.9%. Investors had expected September’s Average Hourly Earnings growth to ease back to 3.8%. With wages and net jobs additions blowing well past expectations across the board, rate market expectations of a higher pace of rate cuts have taken a huge hit to round out a middling-at-best trading week.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate trader expectations for the Fed’s November rate call plummeted post-NFP; rate futures speculators now see a 95% chance that the Fed will trim rates by a modest 25 bps on November 7, with the last 5% betting on no movement at all on the Fed funds rate.