Banxico’s September poll of analysts and economists revealed that inflation expectations were reviewed to the downside, with headline prices down from 4.69% to 4.48% YoY. Underlying inflation is expected to hit 3.84% from 3.94%.
The same survey showed the USD/MXN exchange rate is projected to end 2024 at 19.69, while Banxico’s main reference rate is foreseen to end at 10%.
Mexico’s economy is foreseen to grow by 1.45% in 2024, lower than August’s 1.57%.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that more job reports like this “will make me more confident we are settling in at full employment.” He said most Fed officials expect rates to decrease heavily over the next 18 months.
Citi added its name to JPMorgan and Bank of America and changed its November Fed call from a 50 to 25 bps cut.
Market participants have disregarded a 50 bps cut. The odds of a 25 bps cut are 83.5%, while the chances for holding rates unchanged are at 16.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool data.
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