A month before the election, polls still show a dead heat. The election will likely end up being decided by a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states. On the congressional side, Republicans are likely to flip the Senate; the House is too close to call, Standard Chartered’s economist Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce notes.

As close as it gets

“The average of national polls shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by about 3ppt. At this stage of the race in 2020, Biden was leading by 8ppt. He ended up winning by a razor-thin margin thanks to an estimated 43,000 votes in three states – out of 158mn cast nationwide – that tipped the Electoral College balance in his favour.”

“In this very close race, swing states will play an even bigger role than usual. In seven states, polls show no predictable winner: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Michigan. Together they represent 93 Electoral College votes; swings of just a few thousand votes could translate into very different scenarios, including a strong Harris win, a strong Trump win, or an unprecedented tie.”   

“On the congressional side, current polls show that the Republicans are more likely to gain control of the Senate. This year’s race for the House of Representatives is probably the closest in modern US history.”