• EUR/USD edges down as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on safe-haven flows. 
• China is saber-rattling in the South China Sea around Taiwan. 
• Traders sell the Euro ahead of the expected cut at the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. 

EUR/USD exchanges hands in the 1.0920s on Monday, marginally down on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) attracts safe-haven flows on the back of increasing geopolitical risks stemming from Taiwan, where the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is conducting drills. This prompted a spokesperson from the US Department of State to say on Monday that they were “seriously concerned” with the PLA’s activities in the Strait of Taiwan.

EUR/USD comes under pressure ahead of ECB meeting

EUR/USD could also come under increasing pressure as traders sell the Euro (EUR) ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Most analysts now expect the bank to announce a further 25 basis point (bps) (0.25%) rate cut at the policy meeting, making it the second cut in a row. This, in turn, is likely to weaken the Euro since falling interest rates attract lower foreign capital inflows.

In September, Eurozone headline inflation declined to 1.8%, falling below the ECB’s 2.0% target for the first time in over three years. This, combined with a slowdown in economic activity, is increasing bets of another rate cut on Thursday. Such a move would signal a significant “gear change up” in terms of the pace and timing of the ECB’s easing cycle.  

Trading floors in the US, meanwhile, will likely be mostly empty due to employees being away for the Columbus Day public holiday on Monday. Although some equity trading will still go on, the US bond market will be closed.