United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR, JPY, and GBP.

Investors focus on the US Fed’s ​​monetary actions. Thus, in September, the consumer price index decreased from 2.5% to 2.4% instead of the expected 2.3%, and the producer price indicator — from 1.9% to 1.8% against 1.6%, significantly reducing the possibility of adjusting the interest rate by –50.0 basis points at the November meeting. The probability of keeping the indicator at the previous level is 17.0%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Instrument. Most experts expect that this year there will be two more changes in the cost of borrowing by –25 basis points, in November and December. In addition, the latest the PRC government representatives’ statements support the currency. They promised to increase the government debt significantly to restore the national economy. However, officials did not disclose the overall size of the stimulus package, a key factor in assessing its effectiveness, which disappointed investors and supported the American dollar against alternative assets.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against JPY, weakening against USD, and has ambiguous dynamics against GBP.

Investors are preparing for the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting due on Thursday at 14:15 (GMT 2). Most experts believe that the regulator will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, as its representatives have said. Thus, the head of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, and the head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, and the head of the Bank of Greece Yannis Stournaras confirmed a significant slowdown in inflation and the need for new measures to support the region’s economy. Analysts expect two price adjustments by the end of the year at –25 basis points, in October and December.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against JPY, weakening against USD, and ambiguous against EUR.

Tomorrow at 08:00 (GMT 2), the data from the labor market is due, which could have a significant impact on the Bank of England’s further actions around ​​monetary policy. If unemployment meets the forecasts, remaining at 4.1%, and the average wage level slows from 4.0% to 3.8% MoM and from 5.1% to 4.9% YoY, a stable decline in inflationary pressure will be confirmed. It will increase the likelihood of an interest rate adjustment at the regulator’s next meeting and negatively affect the pound.

Japan

JPY is weakening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

On Tuesday at 06:30 (GMT 2), investors will turn their attention to industrial production data: the indicator may contract by 3.3%, which will confirm the weakness of the sector and put pressure on the domestic export-oriented economy, against which the likelihood of further monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan will decrease.

Australia

AUD is weakening against GBP, EUR, and USD but has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.

The negative dynamics are developing against poor macroeconomic statistics from China, the country’s leading trading partner. The September consumer price index fell from 0.4% to 0.0% MoM and from 0.6% to 0.4% YoY, exceeding preliminary estimates and causing experts to fear deflationary trends that could negatively affect the second world economy. In addition, in September, Chinese imports increased by 0.3% against the forecast of 0.9%, reflecting risks for Australian exporters.

Oil

The morning decline in oil prices changed by a return of lost positions under several opposite factors. Thus, pressure on prices is exerted by poor macroeconomic statistics of the PRC, namely, a reduction in oil purchases. In the first nine months of this year, the average level of supplies amounted to 10.99M barrels per day, 3.0% less than in the same period last year. In addition, experts are alarmed by the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of Chinese exports. The asset is also affected negatively by the adjustment of expectations for global demand for black gold by OPEC. According to the calculations of cartel analysts, this year, it will be 1.93M barrels per day, less than the previously expected 2.03M barrels per day. On the other hand, a significant decline in prices is prevented by the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may decrease oil supply from the regions significantly.