EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0890 as investors prepare for the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Markets are expecting a cut in interest rates by the standard 25 basis points to 3.40%, which could put some pressure on the single currency at least until the next easing of monetary parameters by the US Federal Reserve in November. Market participants also expect that representatives of the European regulator will speak out in favor of continuing the "dovish" monetary policy, taking into account the economic situation in the region. In addition, eurozone inflation data for September will be released on Thursday: forecasts suggest that the annual dynamics will remain at 1.8%, while in monthly terms the indicator is expected to decrease by 0.1%, and the Core Consumer Price Index will probably be fixed at 2.7%. On the same day in the US, investors will pay attention to September Retail Sales statistics: according to preliminary estimates, their volume will increase from 0.1% to 0.3%, and the indicator excluding auto sales will increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. In addition, market participants are assessing the September data on inflation in the US, which entered the market at the end of last week: the Consumer Price Index in annual terms slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%, while analysts expected 2.3%, and the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy accelerated from 3.2% to 3.3%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading moderately lower, holding close to 1.3040. The focus of investors' attention on Tuesday morning is the block of macroeconomic statistics on the UK labour market for August-September. Claimant Count Change in September increased from 23.7 thousand to 27.9 thousand with a forecast of 20.2 thousand, the Employment Change in August increased from 265.0 thousand to 373.0 thousand, Average Earnings Including Bonus in August slowed from 4.0% to 3.8%, and Excluding Bonus — from 5.1% to 4.9%, while the Unemployment Rate fell from 4.1% to 4.0%. The US currency is receiving some support from data on consumer and producer inflation in the US, which were published last week. The Consumer Price Index in September slowed from 2.5% to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.3%, and the Core CPI rose from 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year and remained at the same level of 0.3% month-on-month, contrary to expectations of 0.2%. In turn, the Producer Price Index slowed from 1.9% to 1.8%, while analysts expected 1.6%, and the Core PPI accelerated from 2.6% to 2.8% with preliminary estimates of 2.7%. Higher inflation in the US has led to a revision of the November interest rate cut forecasts, with the probability of a –25-basis-point adjustment falling to 80.0% from 90.0%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool. Tomorrow at 08:00 (GMT 2), the UK will also release inflation statistics: analysts expect the annual Consumer Price Index to slow from 2.2% to 1.9%, and the Core CPI — from 3.6% to 3.4%, which could also increase pressure on the Bank of England to further ease monetary policy.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows moderate decline, testing the level of 0.6710 for a breakdown. The day before, the instrument also traded predominantly with a downward trend and managed to update the local lows of October 10, before the "bulls" briefly seized the initiative and restored some of the lost positions. At the same time, pressure on quotes at the beginning of the week was exerted by data from China, which once again increased concerns about the rate of growth of the national economy: thus, Export volumes in September slowed from 8.7% to 2.4% with a forecast of 6.0%, and Imports — from 0.5% to 0.3%, while analysts expected 0.9%. This resulted in a moderate decline in the trade surplus from 91.02 billion dollars to 81.71 billion dollars, while experts had expected 89.8 billion dollars. Earlier, China also released its September inflation statistics: the Consumer Price Index fell from 0.6% to 0.4% year-on-year and from 0.4% to 0.0% month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index fell 2.8% year-on-year after –1.8% in the previous month, against expectations of –2.5%. The slowdown in the country's indicators signals the growing risks of stagnation of the national economy and, although the authorities are quite actively implementing stimulus measures, so far only limited success has been achieved. Australia will release September labor market data on Thursday, with employment expected to slow to 25.0 thousand from 47.5 thousand and Unemployment expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. On the same day, investors in the US will pay attention to statistics on the dynamics of jobless claims, as well as the volume of retail sales and industrial production. According to preliminary estimates, Retail Sales in September will be adjusted from 0.1% to 0.3%, and Industrial Production will decrease by 0.1% after increasing by 0.8%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing mixed dynamics, consolidating near 149.60 and local highs of August 1. Market activity remains quite low following yesterday's Columbus Day holiday in the US. Meanwhile, some pressure on the yen's position is being exerted by macroeconomic statistics published today: Industrial Production in August fell by 4.9% year-on-year and remained at 3.3% month-on-month, while the Capacity Utilization fell by 5.3% after growing by 2.5% in the previous month. The focus of American investors today will be on the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, which could slow sharply from 11.5 points to 2.3 points in October. Also, a monthly fiscal report from the US Bureau of the Fiscal Service will be published today: investors expect a balance sheet surplus of 61.0 billion dollars in August, following a deficit of –380.0 billion dollars in the previous accounting period. Finally, there will be a series of speeches from US Federal Reserve officials today, including Mary Daly and Adriana Kugler. Officials are expected to point to a further moderate reduction in the Fed's borrowing costs, as the Chairman Jerome Powell has previously warned. The Fed's next meeting is in November, and current forecasts suggest the interest rate will be cut by only 25 basis points.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 2640.00, located not far from the local highs of October 4, updated the day before. Market activity remains subdued as trading floors in the US were closed for Columbus Day celebrations. At the same time, pressure on quotes remained as the American currency strengthened its position on the market. The dollar is supported by diminished expectations regarding the rapid reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve. Following the speech by the Chair of the regulator Jerome Powell, who spoke out sharply against the aggressive pace of easing monetary policy, and also against the backdrop of the publication of inflation statistics last week, the probability of an adjustment to the indicator at the upcoming meetings was revised: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a decrease in the rate by 25 basis points in November is 89.0%. The Consumer Price Index in September slowed from 2.5% to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.3%, and the Core CPI rose from 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year and remained at the same level of 0.3% month-on-month, contrary to expectations of 0.2%. US investors will be watching the release of September data this week, with Retail Sales expected to rise 0.1% to 0.3%, while Industrial Production is expected to fall 0.1% after rising 0.8%.