EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, developing a stable downtrend in the short/medium term. The instrument is testing 1.0850 for a breakdown, while investors await the results of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Analysts expect a 25-basis-point cut in the key interest rate to 3.40%, as well as signals in favor of further monetary easing amid weakening inflation risks in the region. Also, today at 11:00 (GMT 2), the eurozone will publish September inflation statistics: the Core Consumer Price Index is projected to be fixed at 2.7% in annual terms, and the CPI — at 1.8%, while in monthly terms it could fall by 0.1%, as in August. In the US at 14:30 (GMT 2), September data on Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be presented: experts assume that sales volumes in September will accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%, and the indicator excluding autos will increase by 0.1%. Industrial Production is expected to fall 0.2% after growing 0.8% in August, with Capacity Utilization falling to 77.8% from 78.0%. In addition, today the market will receive statistics on jobless claims: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 11 are expected to remain at the previous level of 258.0 thousand, while Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending October 4 may be recorded in the area of 1.861 million.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with multidirectional dynamics during the morning session, consolidating near 1.2985 and local lows from August 20. The day before, the instrument demonstrated a fairly active decline, which was caused by the publication of September data on inflation in Great Britain. In September, the Core Consumer Price Index fell from 3.6% to 3.2% against the forecast of 3.4%, and the CPI fell from 2.2% to 1.7% year-on-year against expectations of 1.9%, and from 0.3% to 0.0% against 0.1% month-on-month. The non-seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index fell from 0.2% to –0.7% year-on-year, almost justifying the preliminary estimates of –0.6%, and dropped from –0.3% to –0.5% month-on-month. The Retail Price Index slowed down year-on-year from 3.5% to 2.7%, although experts expected 3.1%, and from 0.6% to –0.3% on a monthly basis. As inflation cools, analysts are revising their forecasts for what the Bank of England will do next. In the US at 14:30 (GMT 2), the September statistics on Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be presented: Retail Sales in monthly terms are expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.3%, and the indicator excluding autos will be fixed at 0.1%.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, correcting after an active decline the day before, which led to a renewal of the local lows of August 16. The instrument is testing 0.6060 for a breakout, while it is supported mainly by technical factors. The macroeconomic backdrop remains relatively calm, with investors continuing to assess the prospects for further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The day before, New Zealand published mixed quarterly inflation statistics: the Consumer Price Index in the third quarter in annual terms slowed sharply from 3.3% to 2.2%, coming very close to the regulator’s target level. At the same time, in quarterly terms, the indicator accelerated from 0.4% to 0.6%, which was slightly lower than the forecast of 0.7%. Either way, the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the New Zealand regulator has increased. In turn, about 89.0% of analysts, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, expect the US Federal Reserve to reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points in November after adjusting immediately by –50 basis points in September. Forecasts for the December meeting are still not so clear, but experts are generally inclined to favor another reduction of 25 basis points. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will publish September Retail Sales statistics: according to preliminary estimates, the dynamics will accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%, which could contribute to an increase in inflation risks in the country.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing mixed dynamics, consolidating near 149.50 and located not far from the local highs of early August. Investors are in no rush to open new trading positions ahead of today's release of September US Retail Sales statistics. Analysts expect sales dynamics to accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%, while the figure excluding autos will remain at 0.1%. Also released during the day will be data on Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: in October, the index is likely to be adjusted from 1.7 points to 3.0 points. Earlier, the market received data on NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, which showed a sharp decline from 11.5 points to –11.9 points, compared to a forecast of 2.3 points. Investors will also be assessing September Industrial Production data today, with volumes expected to fall 0.2% after rising 0.8% the previous month. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan released today put additional pressure on the yen: Exports fell 1.7% in September after growing 5.5% in the previous month, while experts had expected a 0.5% decline, and Imports slowed from 2.3% to 2.1% against preliminary estimates of 3.2%, resulting in a narrowing of the trade deficit from –703.2 billion yen to –294.3 billion yen against a forecast of –237.6 billion yen. In addition, the Tertiary Industry Index fell by 1.1% in August from 2.2%, while analysts expected –0.2%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the upward dynamics that have developed in the ultra-short term. The instrument is testing 2680.00 for a breakout, holding close to record highs. The quotes are supported by growing uncertainty in the market, caused by conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, as well as the approaching US presidential elections, which will take place on November 5. Gold is also strengthening amid expectations of further monetary easing by leading global regulators. In particular, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points today. In turn, forecasts for the US Federal Reserve suggest at least one reduction in the indicator by 25 basis points before the end of this year. Currently, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a scenario is 89.0%, and about 11.0% of analysts expect borrowing costs to remain unchanged. Today, at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will release Retail Sales and Industrial Production statistics: forecasts suggest that sales volumes in September will accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%, while the figure excluding autos will increase by another 0.1%. Meanwhile, Industrial Production is likely to slow by 0.2% after growing by 0.8% in August, with the Capacity Utilisation rate falling to 77.8% from 78.0%. In addition, data on jobless claims will be presented today: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 11 are expected to remain at the previous level of 258.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims (for the week ending October 4) may be recorded in the area of 1.861 million.